Charlotte, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 36°
  • Overcast
  • Wind: West 12 mph
  • Humidity: 46%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 17°
  • Pressure: 29.74 in. +
  • Heat Index: 28

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Next 12 Hours

11  am
2  pm
5  pm
8  pm
11  pm
Overcast
Overcast
Overcast
Overcast
Overcast
Overcast
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
39°
42°
40°
34°
29°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Tuesday
  • Overcast
  • High: 42 °
  • Low: 24 °
  • Overcast
  • Wednesday
  • Clear
  • High: 41 °
  • Low: 21 °
  • Clear
  • Thursday
  • Clear
  • High: 44 °
  • Low: 23 °
  • Clear
  • Friday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 44 °
  • Low: 30 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Saturday
  • Clear
  • High: 40 °
  • Low: 15 °
  • Clear

Forecast for Charlotte, North Carolina

Updated: 9:49 am EST on February 9, 2016

  • Today

    Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tonight

    Mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. Cold with lows in the mid 20s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Mostly clear. Cold with lows around 19. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Cold with lows in the lower 20s.

  • Friday

    Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.

  • Friday Night

    Mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.

  • Saturday

    Sunny. Highs around 40.

  • Saturday Night

    Mostly clear. Cold with lows around 15.

  • Sunday

    Sunny. Highs in the lower 30s.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Cold with lows around 20.

  • Washingtons Birthday

    Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Public Information Statement  Statement as of 9:57 am EST on February 09, 2016


The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 23
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary is also available
on our home Page at weather.Gov/gsp

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
                     snowfall of
                     /inches/ measurement

North Carolina

... Avery County...
   Beech Mountain 6.0 700 am 2/09 co-op observer
   Banner Elk 2.5 749 PM 2/08 lees McRae College

... Buncombe County...
   Candler 0.5 738 am 2/09 public
   5 S Barnardsville 0.2 513 PM 2/08 Blackberry Inn Rd

... Graham County...
   Stecoah 2.0 700 am 2/09 co-op observer

... Haywood County...
   2 NW Waynesville 2.2 817 am 2/09 3800 feet
   2 S Canton 0.5 900 am 2/09 public

... Macon County...
   Highlands 0.5 700 am 2/09 co-op observer

... Madison County...
   Faust 5.5 705 am 2/09 public
   Marshall 0.5 700 am 2/09 co-op observer
   Hot Springs 0.5 700 am 2/09 co-op observer

... Mitchell County...
   Buladean 6.0 700 am 2/09 public
   4 NNW Bakersville 3.0 900 am 2/09 2600 feet

... Swain County...
   Bryson City 0.4 700 am 2/09 co-op observer

... Yancey County...
   Mount Mitchell state 8.0 700 am 2/09 co-op observer
   3 se Burnsville 4.3 800 am 2/09 4200 feet


**********************24 hour snowfall**********************

Location 24 hour time/date comments
                     snowfall of
                     /inches/ measurement

Georgia

... Rabun County...
   9 W Clayton 0.3 800 am 2/09 cocorahs

North Carolina

... Avery County...
   beech mtn 6.0 730 am 2/09 co-op observer
   1 E Flat Springs 4.0 700 am 2/09 cocorahs
   1 SW Linville Falls 0.1 700 am 2/09 cocorahs
   1 W Plumtree 0.1 700 am 2/09 cocorahs

... Buncombe County...
   2 NE Candler 0.2 700 am 2/09 cocorahs
   4 NNE Asheville 0.2 700 am 2/09 cocorahs
   5 SW Candler 0.2 700 am 2/09 cocorahs
   4 N Weaverville 0.1 700 am 2/09 cocorahs
   2 NNE Candler 0.1 811 am 2/09 cocorahs

... Haywood County...
   4 ENE Canton 1.0 700 am 2/09 cocorahs
   3 ENE Maggie Valley 1.0 700 am 2/09 cocorahs
   1 NW Waynesville 0.4 700 am 2/09 cocorahs
   8 SSE Canton 0.2 800 am 2/09 cocorahs

... Jackson County...
   4 E Tuckasegee 0.2 800 am 2/09 cocorahs

... Macon County...
   Topton 4 E 1.0 645 am 2/09 ucoop

... Madison County...
   14 NNW Marshall 5.5 800 am 2/09 cocorahs
   5 NNE Mars Hill 5.5 700 am 2/09 cocorahs
   15 NNE Marshall 4.0 700 am 2/09 cocorahs
   8 SSW Hot Springs 1.3 900 am 2/09 cocorahs
   8 WSW Marshall 1.1 730 am 2/09 cocorahs
   5 SW Marshall 1.0 800 am 2/09 cocorahs
   Hot Springs 0.5 630 am 2/09 co-op observer
   2 SSE Mars Hill 0.3 800 am 2/09 cocorahs
   7 WNW Leicester 0.1 700 am 2/09 cocorahs

... Mitchell County...
   5 N Bakersville 3.6 740 am 2/09 cocorahs
   3 se Bakersville 1.3 800 am 2/09 cocorahs

... Union County...
   2 WSW Weddington 0.1 900 am 2/09 cocorahs

... Yancey County...
   1 NW Bald Creek 3.0 800 am 2/09 cocorahs
   7 W Burnsville 2.0 845 am 2/09 cocorahs
   6 SSW Burnsville 1.5 800 am 2/09 cocorahs
   7 SSW Burnsville 1.0 830 am 2/09 cocorahs
   5 N Burnsville 0.5 720 am 2/09 cocorahs

&&

*****metadata*****
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Avery, Beech Mountain, , , 36.18780, -81.87360, snow, 6.0, inch, co-op observer,
:2/08/2016, 749 PM, NC, Avery, Banner Elk, , , 36.16240, -81.87230, snow, 2.5, inch, public, lees McRae College
:2/09/2016, 738 am, NC, Buncombe, Candler, , , 35.53640, -82.69310, snow, 0.5, inch, public,
:2/08/2016, 513 PM, NC, Buncombe, Barnardsville, 5, S, 35.71050, -82.46650, snow, 0.2, inch, public, Blackberry Inn Rd
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Graham, Stecoah, , , 35.36970, -83.69060, snow, 2.0, inch, co-op observer,
:2/09/2016, 817 am, NC, Haywood, Waynesville, 2, NW, 35.50498, -83.02266, snow, 2.2, inch, public, 3800 feet
:2/09/2016, 900 am, NC, Haywood, Canton, 2, S, 35.51714, -82.84300, snow, 0.5, inch, public,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Macon, Highlands, , , 35.05400, -83.19810, snow, 0.5, inch, co-op observer,
:2/09/2016, 705 am, NC, Madison, Faust, , , 35.91110, -82.53030, snow, 5.5, inch, public,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Madison, Marshall, , , 35.79670, -82.68400, snow, 0.5, inch, co-op observer,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Madison, Hot Springs, , , 35.89160, -82.82830, snow, 0.5, inch, co-op observer,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Mitchell, Buladean, , , 36.10830, -82.19500, snow, 6.0, inch, public,
:2/09/2016, 900 am, NC, Mitchell, Bakersville, 4, NNW, 36.06831, -82.18582, snow, 3.0, inch, public, 2600 feet
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Swain, Bryson City, , , 35.42650, -83.44730, snow, 0.4, inch, co-op observer,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Yancey, Mount Mitchell State Park, , , 35.77080, -82.26330, snow, 8.0, inch, co-op observer,
:2/09/2016, 800 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 3, se, 35.88578, -82.25999, snow, 4.3, inch, public, 4200 feet
:2/09/2016, 800 am, GA, Rabun, Clayton, 9, W, 34.87944, -83.55111, snow_24, 0.3, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 730 am, NC, Avery, beech mtn, , , 36.18778, -81.87361, snow_24, 6.0, inch, co-op observer,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Avery, Flat Springs, 1, E, 36.25250, -81.91333, snow_24, 4.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Avery, Linville Falls, 1, SW, 35.95442, -81.95200, snow_24, 0.1, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Avery, Plumtree, 1, W, 36.02781, -82.01693, snow_24, 0.1, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Buncombe, Candler, 2, NE, 35.55855, -82.67216, snow_24, 0.2, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Buncombe, Asheville, 4, NNE, 35.62238, -82.50958, snow_24, 0.2, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Buncombe, Candler, 5, SW, 35.48765, -82.75814, snow_24, 0.2, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Buncombe, Weaverville, 4, N, 35.75790, -82.56181, snow_24, 0.1, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 811 am, NC, Buncombe, Candler, 2, NNE, 35.56032, -82.67963, snow_24, 0.1, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Haywood, Canton, 4, ENE, 35.57300, -82.78900, snow_24, 1.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Haywood, Maggie Valley, 3, ENE, 35.53890, -83.04670, snow_24, 1.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Haywood, Waynesville, 1, NW, 35.49322, -83.01271, snow_24, 0.4, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 800 am, NC, Haywood, Canton, 8, SSE, 35.43889, -82.78734, snow_24, 0.2, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 800 am, NC, Jackson, Tuckasegee, 4, E, 35.27655, -83.04937, snow_24, 0.2, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 645 am, NC, Macon, Topton 4 E, , , 35.24450, -83.62470, snow_24, 1.0, inch, ucoop,
:2/09/2016, 800 am, NC, Madison, Marshall, 14, NNW, 35.98208, -82.76719, snow_24, 5.5, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Madison, Mars Hill, 5, NNE, 35.89620, -82.52120, snow_24, 5.5, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Madison, Marshall, 15, NNE, 36.00835, -82.61822, snow_24, 4.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 900 am, NC, Madison, Hot Springs, 8, SSW, 35.78343, -82.89474, snow_24, 1.3, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 730 am, NC, Madison, Marshall, 8, WSW, 35.77006, -82.81285, snow_24, 1.1, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 800 am, NC, Madison, Marshall, 5, SW, 35.75638, -82.75304, snow_24, 1.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 630 am, NC, Madison, Hot Springs, , , 35.89361, -82.82250, snow_24, 0.5, inch, co-op observer,
:2/09/2016, 800 am, NC, Madison, Mars Hill, 2, SSE, 35.80151, -82.53048, snow_24, 0.3, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 700 am, NC, Madison, Leicester, 7, WNW, 35.69550, -82.79910, snow_24, 0.1, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 740 am, NC, Mitchell, Bakersville, 5, N, 36.09200, -82.17500, snow_24, 3.6, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 800 am, NC, Mitchell, Bakersville, 3, se, 35.98900, -82.12800, snow_24, 1.3, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 900 am, NC, Union, Weddington, 2, WSW, 35.02484, -80.77155, snow_24, 0.1, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 800 am, NC, Yancey, Bald Creek, 1, NW, 35.92320, -82.43880, snow_24, 3.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 845 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 7, W, 35.91260, -82.42300, snow_24, 2.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 800 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 6, SSW, 35.83863, -82.34143, snow_24, 1.5, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 830 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 7, SSW, 35.82968, -82.32850, snow_24, 1.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/09/2016, 720 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 5, N, 35.98197, -82.28522, snow_24, 0.5, inch, cocorahs,



Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Starmount, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:35 AM EST

Temperature: 37.4 °F Dew Point: 24 °F Humidity: 57% Wind: North at - Pressure: 28.90 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 37 °F Graphs

Location: Cameron Wood, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:38 AM EST

Temperature: 39.7 °F Dew Point: 21 °F Humidity: 46% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.06 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 40 °F Graphs

Location: Mountainbrook, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:36 AM EST

Temperature: 39.2 °F Dew Point: 25 °F Humidity: 57% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.57 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 39 °F Graphs

Location: Roney SouthPark Mountainbrook, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 AM EST

Temperature: 37.8 °F Dew Point: 21 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: SSE at 1.6 mph Pressure: 29.98 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 38 °F Graphs

Location: Mountainbrook, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:28 AM EST

Temperature: 39.2 °F Dew Point: 23 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: West at 4.2 mph Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 36 °F Graphs

Location: Madison Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:37 AM EST

Temperature: 38.1 °F Dew Point: 19 °F Humidity: 46% Wind: West at 1.1 mph Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 38 °F Graphs

Location: Madison Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:36 AM EST

Temperature: 36.7 °F Dew Point: 27 °F Humidity: 67% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 37 °F Graphs

Location: Carmel CC Greens and Grounds, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:32 AM EST

Temperature: 38.4 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: West at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.09 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 38 °F Graphs

Location: Yorkmount, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:35 AM EST

Temperature: 39.6 °F Dew Point: 32 °F Humidity: 42% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 40 °F Graphs

Location: Brandermill, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:29 AM EST

Temperature: 39.6 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.80 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 40 °F Graphs

Location: Park Rd Shopping Ctr (Ashbrook), Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:38 AM EST

Temperature: 38.5 °F Dew Point: 18 °F Humidity: 44% Wind: NNE at 2.9 mph Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 38 °F Graphs

Location: Olde Providence South, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:36 AM EST

Temperature: 40.8 °F Dew Point: 26 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: North at - Pressure: 28.95 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 41 °F Graphs

Location: Myers Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:37 AM EST

Temperature: 39.7 °F Dew Point: 24 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 40 °F Graphs

Location: Charlotte Country Day School, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:24 AM EST

Temperature: 37.0 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: WSW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 37 °F Graphs

Location: South Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:29 AM EST

Temperature: 38.3 °F Dew Point: 20 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.72 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 38 °F Graphs

Location: Innisfree, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 AM EST

Temperature: 37.8 °F Dew Point: 18 °F Humidity: 44% Wind: NW at 8.3 mph Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: Olde Providence North, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:35 AM EST

Temperature: 38.3 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.72 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 38 °F Graphs

Location: Cloisters, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:34 AM EST

Temperature: 37.9 °F Dew Point: 21 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.67 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 38 °F Graphs

Location: Myers Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:37 AM EST

Temperature: 38.8 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 39 °F Graphs

Location: Freedom Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:35 AM EST

Temperature: 37.9 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 38 °F Graphs

Location: Lenox Pointe Drive, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:35 AM EST

Temperature: 37.8 °F Dew Point: 25 °F Humidity: 59% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 38 °F Graphs

Location: Providence Springs, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:34 AM EST

Temperature: 37.3 °F Dew Point: 20 °F Humidity: 49% Wind: WSW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 37 °F Graphs

Location: Cotswold, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 AM EST

Temperature: 37.2 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: NNW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 37 °F Graphs

Location: Brookhill, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:36 AM EST

Temperature: 37.4 °F Dew Point: 20 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: North at - Pressure: 28.96 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 37 °F Graphs

Location: Cardinal Woods, Pineville, NC

Updated: 10:38 AM EST

Temperature: 38.6 °F Dew Point: 23 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: WSW at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 35 °F Graphs

Location: Oxford Hunt, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:35 AM EST

Temperature: 38.3 °F Dew Point: 26 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.11 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 38 °F Graphs

Location: Ballantyne, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:24 AM EST

Temperature: 37.8 °F Dew Point: 23 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: WSW at 4.7 mph Pressure: 29.50 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Sardis View Lane, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:38 AM EST

Temperature: 37.4 °F Dew Point: 23 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: West at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.72 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 37 °F Graphs

Location: Dilworth-Latta Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 AM EST

Temperature: 38.5 °F Dew Point: 19 °F Humidity: 45% Wind: WSW at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.62 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 36 °F Graphs

Location: Reverdy, Matthews, NC

Updated: 10:34 AM EST

Temperature: 38.3 °F Dew Point: 19 °F Humidity: 46% Wind: ESE at 4.2 mph Pressure: 29.58 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 35 °F Graphs

Location: Ballantyne West, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:35 AM EST

Temperature: 37.6 °F Dew Point: 23 °F Humidity: 55% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 38 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
1000 am EST Tuesday Feb 9 2016 


Synopsis... 
a broad and moist area of low pressure will slowly cross the region 
through Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure will then build in 
Thursday and remain through the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 945 am EST Tuesday...latest radar analysis from kmrx continues 
to indicate modest upsloping of moisture on the western slopes of 
the southern Appalachians...which is backed up by area web cams 
that favor moderate/heavy snowfall at some locales. Given that 
no significant pattern shifts are forecast...expecting this snowfall 
to persist through the afternoon/evening...with banding yielding 
heavier localized amounts. As for those amounts...went through and 
populated latest forecast package with a 12z NAM and 09z sref blend 
for quantitative precipitation forecast with 20:1/25:1 ratios...which produced an additional 2-3 
inches along the Tennessee line through 12z Wednesday. Thus...no changes 
planned for the current wwy. Otherwise...modest downsloping is 
evident on latest visible Sat imagery along with impressive mountain 
wave activity. Updated sky to account for such...however was 
hesitant to pull broken/overcast skies from the Piedmont as guidance doesnt 
favor much eastward expansion of said downsloping induced clearing. 
Tweaked temperatures/dewpoints to align with recent trends with 
no other changes needed/made. 


Previous discussion...deep upper trough with embedded cyclone 
now sits over virtually the entire eastern Continental U.S.. a kink in the 
circulation is swinging across eastern KY/TN...and a broad area of 
light snow extends from near Knoxville to near Pittsburgh ahead 
of it. Some of this moisture and westerly low level flow will continue 
to intercept the southern Appalachians through the morning. Based on the 
few surface observation and webcams available from near The Spine of the 
mountains...the accumulate since snow began yesterday is generally 
under 2 inches. Peak rates from this phase of the event have 
already occurred. Though snow will continue today...winds are 
expected to back and upper forcing to weaken as that shortwave 
kink move east of the chain...so the upslope forcing will weaken 
accordingly. Short range guidance seems to have picked up on this 
as the consensus is that rates will slow...and a lull in snow 
will occur during the day. Winds become more favorable again by 
this evening...and another lobe of the trough will pass as well 
providing a boost aloft. Thus the snow should pick back up this 
evening...this also backed up by short range guidance. While I feel 
the higher-res guidance is doing a good job with the trends...I 
am reluctant to use its relatively high quantitative precipitation forecast...which was overdone 
Monday. We will let the Winter Storm Warning expire at 12z as 
expected...then hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for the NC mountains 
plus Rabun County...going through 6 am tomorrow. We will keep the 
Wind Chill Advisory as-is given the continued cold advection and 
modest gradient flow still poised to bring wind chills from 5 to 
15 below zero in the higher elevations by daybreak Wednesday. 


&& 


Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/... 
as of 335 am Tuesday...northwest flow snow will begin winding down Wednesday as 
as the moisture and wind diminish. Could see another half inch in 
the usual locations before the snow showers turn more to flurries 
then end Wednesday night. Although winds will diminish...they will be high 
enough and temperatures cold enough for high elevation wind chills to fall back 
into the advisory range. Highs across the mountains will be near the 
normal lows...and up to 15 degrees below normal elsewhere. Lows will 
be 10 to 15 degrees below normal. 


A weak clipper system will drop into the area Thursday and east of the 
area Thursday night. Guidance is in disagreement on the amount of moisture 
and any resulting precipitation. Therefore...have kept a dry forecast for now 
as even the wettest model does not have any significant snowfall. 
Thicknesses rise ahead of the clipper bringing a warming trend 
across the County warning forecast area. Highs will /only/ be 10 to 15 degrees below normal 
while lows end up around 10 degrees below normal. With the increase 
in temperatures and relatively light winds...wind chill values should remain 
above advisory levels Thursday night. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Monday/... 
as of 355 am Tuesday...much better agreement in the medium range 
guidance this morning...at least until the end of the period. The 
deep eastern Continental U.S. Trough will remain in place through Sat. Short waves 
rotating through the trough bring an Arctic front across the area with a 
return of a very cold air mass. There could be some light northwest flow 
snow behind the front...but it looks to be less than advisory level 
snowfall for now. Highs Friday rise a couple of degrees from Thursday ahead 
of the Arctic front...then drop precipitously through sun behind the 
front. In fact...highs sun will be near the normal lows for this 
time of year...with lows up to 15 to 20 degrees below normal. With 
the cold temperatures and increasing winds behind the front...very low wind 
chill values will return as well. High elevation advisory level wind 
chills are possible Friday night...with widespread Mountain Valley advisory 
and high elevation warning level wind chills possible Sat night. 


Guidance disagrees on the potential weather system moving through on 
Monday. The GFS has a weak frontal system moving through from the northwest with 
Little Gulf or Atlantic in flow. The European model (ecmwf) has a strong front moving 
in from the west with strong Gulf inflow. Surface and 850 mb temperatures 
would indicate some snow potential across the mountains and northern tier with 
mainly rain elsewhere. Have gone with a guidance blend and kept pop 
in the chance range for now...with the rain/snow line based on 
surface temperatures. Confidence is low in this portion of the forecast 
with changes likely as it approaches. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
at kclt...with cyclonic upper flow over the region...expect periods 
of midlevel ceilings through the day. Winds will be difficult to nail down 
through much of the period...with near due westerly flow expected...and 
a complex pressure pattern not lending much confidence to west-southwest vs 
west-northwest. Fairly good midlevel lapse rates will again allow congested 
cumulus to develop over a deep mixed layer...which is not expected to 
produce any precipitation though a few brisk gusts might result. Bases 
should lift a bit going into evening...with clouds scattering 
as well. 


At kavl...northwest flow into the mountains will continue to produce low 
clouds and -shsn. Occasional restrictions during more intense showers 
can/T be ruled out...but that looks unlikely enough to omit. Little 
to no change in the pattern is seen through the period...so a few 
flurries may be seen more or less continuously...but the chance 
of accumulation beyond a trace is low. Winds stay northwest but frequent 
gusting is likely in the afternoon. 


Elsewhere east of the mountains...sct-bkn stratocu decks are likely to 
come and go much of the period as cyclonic upper flow persists...and 
embedded eddies provide periodic enhancement to lift. Deep mixing 
again will permit gustiness during peak heating today. Winds will 
remain near west...with some variability. 


Outlook...several strong upper disturbances embedded in a deep 
upper trough will swing across the area through Wednesday. Moisture 
and cold air will continue to flow into the area during this 
time period. Restrictions will be possible...particularly in the 
mountains where there are high chances of accumulating snow. 


Confidence table... 


15-21z 21-03z 03-09z 09-12z 
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 


The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing 
with the schedule taf issuance flight rule category. Complet hourly 
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts 
are available at the following link: 


Www.Weather.Gov/gsp/aviation 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Wednesday for gaz010. 
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Wednesday for ncz033- 
048>053-058-059-062-063. 
Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST 
Wednesday for ncz033-048>052-058-059-062>064. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rwh/sbk 
near term...cdg/Wimberley 
short term...rwh 
long term...rwh 
aviation...Wimberley 



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