Severe Weather Alerts

Your Weather

To update your location please enter your ZIP code, city, state, airport code or country in the field below. Weather by E-mail: Forecast storm alerts. Weather E-Mail Alert Sign Up »

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 57 °
• Low: 34 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 43 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 43 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia 
935 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Synopsis... 
a strong cold front will cross the area from the northwest 
overnight with drier and cooler air pushing in for Friday into 
the weekend. A warm front works north from the Gulf Coast early 
next week...followed by strong high pressure bringing more Summer 
like weather by middle to late week. 
&& 


Near term /through Friday/... 
as of 920 PM EDT Thursday... 


Wind shift front now nearing the Blue Ridge preceded by a narrow 
line of shallow rain showers/thunderstorms and rain that will cross the eastern edge of the 
County Warning Area in the next hour. Actual dewpoint front lags back along the 
Ohio River denoted by another band of -shra per regional radar 
loops. Once the eastern band of rain showers exits...models keep clouds 
packed in across the far west as the flow turns more northwest while 
getting more clearing east as downslope increases late. Thus will 
keep Cat/likely probability of precipitation out east a bit longer and hang onto current 
chances northwest slopes overnight espcly given the arrival of the strong 
500 mb upper system toward daybreak. 


Overnight lows appear on track with cold air advection surging in 
behind the secondary front but will see clouds and mixing hinder 
big drop in temperatures. Look for lows in the upper 40s across the WV 
mountains into the NC mountains...to middle 50s New River valley/Roanoke and 
upper 50s/near 60 east. 


Models keep clouds over the west tonight into Friday morning while 
strong downslope works to dry things out to the east. 


Pressure rises on the order of 4-6 mb per 6 hours will be moving 
into the area late tonight/early Friday where some gusts could 
exceed 40 knots. Low level winds are marginal for Wind Advisory...but 
will have to monitor trends to see if an advisory may be needed over 
the higher elevations of far SW Virginia into northwest NC Friday. 


Airmass will be noticeably drier and cooler Friday with the 
breeze...with highs only managing the 60s west to lower 70s east. 


&& 


Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/... 
as of 350 PM EDT Thursday... 


Cold anomalous upper level trough will move across the eastern Continental U.S. 
This weekend providing downright cool conditions for the Memorial 
Day weekend. Temperatures this weekend are expected to be 15 to 20 
degrees below normal with an opportunity for low temperatures to 
test the 30s both Saturday and Sunday morning. 


1030 mb surface high is prognosticated to move across the Ohio Valley and 
Great Lakes Friday...sliding south and east across the middle Atlantic 
region Saturday and Sunday. Cold air advection riding into the area 
on brisk northwest winds Friday night will overtake the entire region...dewpoints 
slipping into the 20s. In spite of the unseasonably cool 
temperatures...mixing from the wind Friday night and abundance of 
vegetation...especially the tree canopy...should trap enough long 
wave radiation at night to prevent a frost or freeze. The only 
area at this time that we think temperatures may slip below freezing for a few 
hours would be the WV mountains northwest of Lewisburg. 
Elsewhere...unless you just live in a Deep Hole...unprotected 
Mountain Valley...would there be a need to take any precaution 
from a frost or freeze. Even in these areas...would think plants 
near buildings or underneath a porch would fair just fine. 


With air temperatures suppressed well below normal for the 
weekend...combined with low dewpoints...a swim party at the local 
pool is not recommended. Hiking or working out of doors however 
look to be ideal...as no rain is forecast and a lot of folks may 
prefer the crisper cool conditions for mowing the back yard 
hayfields that have been promoted from all the rainfall this past 
week. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Thursday/... 
as of 350 PM EDT Thursday 


Looks like we will trade the cool upper trough for a Mammoth Ridge 
of upper level high by the middle of next week. Monday and Tuesday 
will be transition days with clouds and potential precipitation spilling 
into the area around an amplifying area of upper level high 
pressure...which will morph from the central Continental U.S. 
Monday...overtaking the eastern Continental U.S. By Wednesday. At the 
surface...a warm front will move northeast...up through the Ohio 
Valley...arcing through the Middle Atlantic States. This feature will 
likely be the focus for clouds and potential for showers with 
embedded thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. The front should gain 
latitude Tuesday and finally put US completely in the warm sector 
by Wednesday. For Wednesday and Thursday it will be back to 
really warm temperatures and higher humidity with the threat for airmass 
showers and thunderstorms mainly during the peak heating hours. 


&& 


Aviation /01z Friday through Tuesday/... 
as of 725 PM EDT Thursday... 


Line of showers and storms has developed along the Blue Ridge and 
will be pushing east into the Piedmont before weakening in the 
next hour or two. Thus have included a couple hours of MVFR in 
convection from kroa east with wind gusts to 40 kts possible as 
this line comes off the higher terrain. Elsewhere still expecting a 
scattering of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain espcly southeast wva sites where will keep 
prevailing rain showers and a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention until late this evening. Latest 
models suggest most coverage should be gone prior to midnight 
although lower clouds may linger in the upslope areas around 
kblf/klwb overnight. Also with surface winds picking up think IFR ceilings 
at kblf a good possibility while klwb drops to MVFR at times. 


Further east ceilings will be VFR although bcb could fall into MVFR 
for a few hours around dawn. 


Winds will be picking up in earnest Friday morning with gusts to 
30 knots possible across kbcb/kroa/kblf. The dry airmass should 
bring about VFR at all sites by the end of the taf period. 


High pressure to keep US VFR through the weekend. Moisture 
increases again next week as the surface high moves east and the upper 
ridge strengthens over the Mississippi Valley. Will be getting to 
more humid weather again with some thunderstorm threat by Tuesday 
and fog issues at night in the valleys. 


&& 


Rnk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Virginia...none. 
NC...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wp 
near term...jh/wp 
short term...PM 
long term...PM 
aviation...jh/wp