Charlotte, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 27°
  • Clear
  • Wind: NE 9 mph
  • Humidity: 31%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 0°
  • Pressure: 30.42 in. +
  • Heat Index: 18

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Next 12 Hours

10  pm
1  am
4  am
7  am
10  am
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
26°
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27°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Sunday
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • High: 37 °
  • Low: 23 °
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Ice Pellets
  • High: 34 °
  • Low: 36 °
  • Ice Pellets
  • Tuesday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 61 °
  • Low: 36 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Wednesday
  • Clear
  • High: 58 °
  • Low: 31 °
  • Clear
  • Thursday
  • Clear
  • High: 56 °
  • Low: 31 °
  • Clear

Forecast for Charlotte, North Carolina

Updated: 8:50 PM EST on February 13, 2016

Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Sunday night through Monday evening...
  • Tonight

    Mostly clear. Cold with lows around 16. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.

  • Washingtons Birthday

    Sleet likely. Snow likely in the morning... then rain with freezing rain likely in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

  • Monday Night

    Rain. Near steady temperatures in the mid 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

  • Tuesday

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning...then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Not as cool with highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

  • Tuesday Night

    Mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.

  • Wednesday

    Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.

  • Wednesday Night

    Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.

  • Thursday

    Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.

  • Thursday Night

    Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.

  • Friday

    Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.

  • Saturday

    Partly sunny in the morning...then clearing. Highs in the lower 60s.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Winter Storm Watch  Statement as of 8:42 PM EST on February 13, 2016


... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late Sunday night
through Monday evening...

* locations... the foothills and portions of the Piedmont of
North Carolina... South Carolina... and northeast Georgia...
generally along and northwest of a line from Carnesville
Georgia... to Greenville-Spartanburg... to Charlotte.

* Hazards... a mixture of snow... sleet... and freezing rain.

* Timing... precipitation will begin as light snow Sunday night...
   mixing with and changing over to sleet Monday morning. A
brief period of freezing rain will be possible before
temperatures warm enough to change precipitation to all rain
early Monday afternoon.

* Accumulations... snow or sleet accumulation of up to 1 inch
possible... along with around a trace of ice.

* Impacts... accumulations of snow... sleet... and freezing rain
may result in hazardous travel conditions.

* Temperatures... in the mid 20s Sunday night... warming into the
mid 30s by Monday afternoon.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.Weather.Gov/gsp.



Ned




 Special Statement  Statement as of 3:57 PM EST on February 13, 2016


... Cold wave expected over the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia through Sunday...

A very cold Arctic air mass will settle across the region
tonight... with low temperatures in the single digits to lower
teens in the mountains... and in the teens to around 20 over the
foothills and Piedmont. High temperatures will struggle again on
Sunday to rise through the 20s across the mountains and the 30s
across the Piedmont... with highs generally 15 to 20 degrees below
normal in most areas.

The cold weather will result in high demands for electricity
across the region. Power outages may result from the heavy
electrical Load. Those who require electricity for heating or
medical equipment should consider backup heat or electrical
sources.

Take steps now to protect your property and health from the
extreme cold. If you go outside... wear several layers of loose
fitting... lightweight... warm clothing rather than one layer of
heavy clothing. Mittens are warmer than gloves. Wear a hat and
cover your mouth with a scarf. If driving... keep your Gas Tank
near full to avoid ice in The Tank and fuel lines. Check your
antifreeze and windshield washer fluid levels. Be sure to carry a
fully charged cell phone.

In your home... consider allowing indoor plumbing fixtures to drip
to allow water to trickle through pipes and inhibit freezing. Use
caution with space heaters in order to avoid fire or injury. If
emergency generators will be used... they must be situated outdoors
in well ventilated areas to prevent Carbon monoxide poisoning.

Also... remember to check in on family... friends... and elderly
neighbors who might be susceptible to the cold. Do not Forget
about your pets and livestock. Make sure they have a source of
water that will not freeze and a warm place to take shelter from
the wind and cold.

Do not attempt to walk on frozen ponds... lakes or streams... as the
ice will not be thick enough to support the weight... even of a
child.

A cold wave is defined as when the average daily temperature is
12 degrees or more below normal mid-January average daily
temperatures for 48 hours or longer. Normal mid-January average
daily temperatures are... for Asheville 37... Charlotte 41... and
gsp 42. By definition it follows that a cold wave is when the
average daily temperature for Asheville is 25... Charlotte is
29... and gsp is 30 degrees.


PM


357 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

... Cold wave expected over the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia through Sunday...

A very cold Arctic air mass will settle across the region
tonight... with low temperatures in the single digits to lower
teens in the mountains... and in the teens to around 20 over the
foothills and Piedmont. High temperatures will struggle again on
Sunday to rise through the 20s across the mountains and the 30s
across the Piedmont... with highs generally 15 to 20 degrees below
normal in most areas.

The cold weather will result in high demands for electricity
across the region. Power outages may result from the heavy
electrical Load. Those who require electricity for heating or
medical equipment should consider backup heat or electrical
sources.

Take steps now to protect your property and health from the
extreme cold. If you go outside... wear several layers of loose
fitting... lightweight... warm clothing rather than one layer of
heavy clothing. Mittens are warmer than gloves. Wear a hat and
cover your mouth with a scarf. If driving... keep your Gas Tank
near full to avoid ice in The Tank and fuel lines. Check your
antifreeze and windshield washer fluid levels. Be sure to carry a
fully charged cell phone.

In your home... consider allowing indoor plumbing fixtures to drip
to allow water to trickle through pipes and inhibit freezing. Use
caution with space heaters in order to avoid fire or injury. If
emergency generators will be used... they must be situated outdoors
in well ventilated areas to prevent Carbon monoxide poisoning.

Also... remember to check in on family... friends... and elderly
neighbors who might be susceptible to the cold. Do not Forget
about your pets and livestock. Make sure they have a source of
water that will not freeze and a warm place to take shelter from
the wind and cold.

Do not attempt to walk on frozen ponds... lakes or streams... as the
ice will not be thick enough to support the weight... even of a
child.

A cold wave is defined as when the average daily temperature is
12 degrees or more below normal mid-January average daily
temperatures for 48 hours or longer. Normal mid-January average
daily temperatures are... for Asheville 37... Charlotte 41... and
gsp 42. By definition it follows that a cold wave is when the
average daily temperature for Asheville is 25... Charlotte is
29... and gsp is 30 degrees.


PM

301 am EST Sat Feb 13 2016

... Cold wave expected over the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia through this weekend...

A very cold Arctic airmass is building into the region today. High
temperatures this afternoon will likely remain in the teens and
20s across the mountains... with mostly 30s east of the mountains.
Colder air will settle in tonight... with low temperatures in the
single digits to lower teens in the mountains... and in the teens
to around 20 over the foothills and Piedmont. High temperatures
will struggle again on Sunday to reach the 20s mountains and 30s
Piedmont... with highs some 20 to 25 degrees below normal in most
areas.

The cold weather will result in high demands for electricity
across the region. Power outages may result from the heavy
electrical Load. Those who require electricity for heating or
medical equipment should consider backup heat or electrical
sources.

Take steps now to protect your property and health from the
extreme cold. If you go outside... wear several layers of loose
fitting... lightweight... warm clothing rather than one layer of
heavy clothing. Mittens are warmer than gloves. Wear a hat and
cover your mouth with a scarf. If driving... keep your Gas Tank
near full to avoid ice in The Tank and fuel lines. Check your
antifreeze and windshield washer fluid levels. Be sure to carry a
fully charged cell phone.

In your home... consider allowing indoor plumbing fixtures to drip
to allow water to trickle through pipes and inhibit freezing. Use
caution with space heaters in order to avoid fire or injury. If
emergency generators will be used... they must be situated outdoors
in well ventilated areas to prevent Carbon monoxide poisoning.

Also... remember to check in on family... friends... and elderly
neighbors who might be susceptible to the cold. Do not Forget
about your pets and livestock. Make sure they have a source of
water that will not freeze and a warm place to take shelter from
the wind and cold.

Do not attempt to walk on frozen ponds... lakes or streams... as the
ice will not be thick enough to support the weight... even of a
child.

A cold wave is defined as when the average daily temperature is
12 degrees or more below normal mid-January average daily
temperatures for 48 hours or longer. Normal mid-January average
daily temperatures are... for Asheville 37... Charlotte 41... and
gsp 42. By definition it follows that a cold wave is when the
average daily temperature for Asheville is 25... Charlotte is
29... and gsp is 30.



301 am EST Sat Feb 13 2016

... Cold wave expected over the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia through this weekend...

A very cold Arctic airmass is building into the region today. High
temperatures this afternoon will likely remain in the teens and
20s across the mountains... with mostly 30s east of the mountains.
Colder air will settle in tonight... with low temperatures in the
single digits to lower teens in the mountains... and in the teens
to around 20 over the foothills and Piedmont. High temperatures
will struggle again on Sunday to reach the 20s mountains and 30s
Piedmont... with highs some 20 to 25 degrees below normal in most
areas.

The cold weather will result in high demands for electricity
across the region. Power outages may result from the heavy
electrical Load. Those who require electricity for heating or
medical equipment should consider backup heat or electrical
sources.

Take steps now to protect your property and health from the
extreme cold. If you go outside... wear several layers of loose
fitting... lightweight... warm clothing rather than one layer of
heavy clothing. Mittens are warmer than gloves. Wear a hat and
cover your mouth with a scarf. If driving... keep your Gas Tank
near full to avoid ice in The Tank and fuel lines. Check your
antifreeze and windshield washer fluid levels. Be sure to carry a
fully charged cell phone.

In your home... consider allowing indoor plumbing fixtures to drip
to allow water to trickle through pipes and inhibit freezing. Use
caution with space heaters in order to avoid fire or injury. If
emergency generators will be used... they must be situated outdoors
in well ventilated areas to prevent Carbon monoxide poisoning.

Also... remember to check in on family... friends... and elderly
neighbors who might be susceptible to the cold. Do not Forget
about your pets and livestock. Make sure they have a source of
water that will not freeze and a warm place to take shelter from
the wind and cold.

Do not attempt to walk on frozen ponds... lakes or streams... as the
ice will not be thick enough to support the weight... even of a
child.

A cold wave is defined as when the average daily temperature is
12 degrees or more below normal mid-January average daily
temperatures for 48 hours or longer. Normal mid-January average
daily temperatures are... for Asheville 37... Charlotte 41... and
gsp 42. By definition it follows that a cold wave is when the
average daily temperature for Asheville is 25... Charlotte is
29... and gsp is 30.


301 am EST Sat Feb 13 2016

... Cold wave expected over the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia through this weekend...

A very cold Arctic airmass is building into the region today. High
temperatures this afternoon will likely remain in the teens and
20s across the mountains... with mostly 30s east of the mountains.
Colder air will settle in tonight... with low temperatures in the
single digits to lower teens in the mountains... and in the teens
to around 20 over the foothills and Piedmont. High temperatures
will struggle again on Sunday to reach the 20s mountains and 30s
Piedmont... with highs some 20 to 25 degrees below normal in most
areas.

The cold weather will result in high demands for electricity
across the region. Power outages may result from the heavy
electrical Load. Those who require electricity for heating or
medical equipment should consider backup heat or electrical
sources.

Take steps now to protect your property and health from the
extreme cold. If you go outside... wear several layers of loose
fitting... lightweight... warm clothing rather than one layer of
heavy clothing. Mittens are warmer than gloves. Wear a hat and
cover your mouth with a scarf. If driving... keep your Gas Tank
near full to avoid ice in The Tank and fuel lines. Check your
antifreeze and windshield washer fluid levels. Be sure to carry a
fully charged cell phone.

In your home... consider allowing indoor plumbing fixtures to drip
to allow water to trickle through pipes and inhibit freezing. Use
caution with space heaters in order to avoid fire or injury. If
emergency generators will be used... they must be situated outdoors
in well ventilated areas to prevent Carbon monoxide poisoning.

Also... remember to check in on family... friends... and elderly
neighbors who might be susceptible to the cold. Do not Forget
about your pets and livestock. Make sure they have a source of
water that will not freeze and a warm place to take shelter from
the wind and cold.

Do not attempt to walk on frozen ponds... lakes or streams... as the
ice will not be thick enough to support the weight... even of a
child.

A cold wave is defined as when the average daily temperature is
12 degrees or more below normal mid-January average daily
temperatures for 48 hours or longer. Normal mid-January average
daily temperatures are... for Asheville 37... Charlotte 41... and
gsp 42. By definition it follows that a cold wave is when the
average daily temperature for Asheville is 25... Charlotte is
29... and gsp is 30.




Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Myers Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 PM EST

Temperature: 28.6 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 34% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.39 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 29 °F Graphs

Location: Myers Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 PM EST

Temperature: 28.0 °F Dew Point: 6 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.33 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 28 °F Graphs

Location: Freedom Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:37 PM EST

Temperature: 30.6 °F Dew Point: 7 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.46 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 31 °F Graphs

Location: Park Rd Shopping Ctr (Ashbrook), Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 PM EST

Temperature: 27.1 °F Dew Point: -2 °F Humidity: 27% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.39 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 27 °F Graphs

Location: Brookhill, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 PM EST

Temperature: 27.3 °F Dew Point: 5 °F Humidity: 38% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.61 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 27 °F Graphs

Location: Madison Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:38 PM EST

Temperature: 27.1 °F Dew Point: -5 °F Humidity: 24% Wind: NE at 1.3 mph Pressure: 30.39 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 27 °F Graphs

Location: Dilworth-Latta Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 PM EST

Temperature: 27.7 °F Dew Point: 5 °F Humidity: 37% Wind: NE at 5.0 mph Pressure: 30.28 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 22 °F Graphs

Location: Third Ward, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:37 PM EST

Temperature: 31.6 °F Dew Point: 6 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.98 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: Cloisters, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:27 PM EST

Temperature: 26.4 °F Dew Point: 1 °F Humidity: 34% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.35 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 26 °F Graphs

Location: Fourth Ward, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:38 PM EST

Temperature: 25.0 °F Dew Point: 2 °F Humidity: 37% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 25 °F Graphs

Location: Madison Park, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 PM EST

Temperature: 26.4 °F Dew Point: 6 °F Humidity: 41% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.48 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 26 °F Graphs

Location: Mountainbrook, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:34 PM EST

Temperature: 26.1 °F Dew Point: 5 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: ESE at 1.7 mph Pressure: 30.34 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 26 °F Graphs

Location: Mountainbrook, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 PM EST

Temperature: 30.9 °F Dew Point: 8 °F Humidity: 37% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.24 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 31 °F Graphs

Location: Starmount, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:37 PM EST

Temperature: 27.9 °F Dew Point: 8 °F Humidity: 43% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.56 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 28 °F Graphs

Location: Yorkmount, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:35 PM EST

Temperature: 28.2 °F Dew Point: 32 °F Humidity: 46% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.40 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 28 °F Graphs

Location: Roney SouthPark Mountainbrook, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 PM EST

Temperature: 26.8 °F Dew Point: -5 °F Humidity: 24% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.63 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 27 °F Graphs

Location: Brandermill, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:29 PM EST

Temperature: 29.3 °F Dew Point: 6 °F Humidity: 34% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.47 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 29 °F Graphs

Location: Beverly Woods, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 PM EST

Temperature: 30.6 °F Dew Point: 5 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.52 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 31 °F Graphs

Location: Olde Providence South, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 PM EST

Temperature: 25.0 °F Dew Point: 5 °F Humidity: 42% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.61 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 25 °F Graphs

Location: Sardis View Lane, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:36 PM EST

Temperature: 26.4 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 38% Wind: ENE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.40 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 26 °F Graphs

Location: St. Clair Subdivision, Matthews, NC

Updated: 10:30 PM EST

Temperature: 26.2 °F Dew Point: 5 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: NNE at 5.0 mph Pressure: 30.42 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 20 °F Graphs

Location: Carmel CC Greens and Grounds, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:27 PM EST

Temperature: 26.7 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 38% Wind: NE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 22 °F Graphs

Location: Oxford Hunt, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:38 PM EST

Temperature: 27.5 °F Dew Point: 9 °F Humidity: 46% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 28 °F Graphs

Location: Providence Springs, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:34 PM EST

Temperature: 26.6 °F Dew Point: 2 °F Humidity: 34% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.47 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 27 °F Graphs

Location: allen hills, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:39 PM EST

Temperature: 26.2 °F Dew Point: 6 °F Humidity: 41% Wind: NW at 2.3 mph Pressure: 30.13 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 26 °F Graphs

Location: Charlotte Country Day School, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:37 PM EST

Temperature: 26.9 °F Dew Point: 6 °F Humidity: 41% Wind: NE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.43 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 27 °F Graphs

Location: Autumnwood II, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 10:37 PM EST

Temperature: 24.8 °F Dew Point: 3 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: NNE at 2.7 mph Pressure: 30.26 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 25 °F Graphs

Location: Reverdy, Matthews, NC

Updated: 10:29 PM EST

Temperature: 27.1 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: SW at 1.1 mph Pressure: 30.25 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 27 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
1037 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016 


Synopsis... 
cold Arctic high pressure will build across the region through 
Monday...while a moist storm system crosses from the west late 
Sunday into Tuesday. A fast moving upper level system will reach the 
mountains late Tuesday...before dry and seasonal high pressure 
returns and remains through the end of the week. 


&& 


Near term /through Sunday/... 
as of 1030 PM...the latest observation from Montana. Mitchell indicated a 
temperature zero and a wind chill of minus 25...that is the extreme. 
Generally across the northern mountains...temperatures in the teens and wind 
chill values in the the single digits to around zero across the high 
elevations. Min temperatures tonight across the northern mountains will range in the 
single digits. Based on the min temperatures and gusty winds the current 
Wind Chill Advisory appears well placed and timed. 


As of 720 PM...latest satellite images indicate clear sky across the 
foothills and Piedmont...with increasing cirrus clouds streaming southeast 
across the middle Mississippi River valley. The high clouds are 
associated with Arctic high pressure pushing across the Great Plains 
and middle west. As the high approaches...winds should veer from the NE 
and high cloud cover will increase. By Sunday afternoon...the center 
of the high is expected to reach the New England coast...with 
ridging southward. 


As of 515 PM...I will update the forecast to reduce sky cover and 
probability of precipitation to zero. This evening will be clear and cold...with freezing 
temperatures developing east of the mountains shortly after sunset. 


At 230 PM Saturday...an upper trough along the eastern Seaboard this 
afternoon will deamplify and progress of the coast on Sunday...while 
another trough starts to amplify over the MS River Valley. 
Meanwhile...surface high pressure will move from the upper MS River 
Valley today...to New York by late Sunday. The result will be a 
reduction the pressure gradient over the southern Appalachians 
tonight...and then the setting up a wedge of cold air along The East 
Slope of the Appalachians on Sunday. 


Moisture will spread north over the Gulf states on Sunday ahead of a 
surface low crossing northern Texas...lifted isentropically over a 
front in the lower MS River Valley. Guidance shows the eastern edge 
of this moist upglide reaching the southern Appalachians during the 
day on Sunday. Deep moist thermal profiles ice nucleation...and cold 
surface temperatures...will allow snowfall to reach the ground... 
albeit with light accumulations to begin with. 


&& 


Short term /Sunday night through Wednesday/... 
as of 300 PM EST Saturday...well...the short term remains a 
mess...so not much has changed there. Still quite a bit of 
uncertainty but it is starting to look better. We have been 
advertising the synoptic setup for quite some time...and overall 
no real changes there. We are starting the short term very cold at 
the surface with the Arctic high pressure in place and deep upper 
trough over the eastern Seaboard. Shortwave diving out of the plains 
on the backside of the trough will help to push the surface high 
pressure east...allowing it to dam down the eastern Seaboard in 
a hybrid cad event. Another shortwave coming out of The Rockies 
into the central and Southern Plains will increase the amplitude 
of the wave and bring moisture up over the deep south and into 
the Tennessee Valley. Biggest Point of uncertainty remains in the 
track of the surface low. Of the operational models...12z ecwmf 
remains on the northwest side /northwest of the Appalachians/ and 
thereby the warmest...NAM keeps the surface low across the central 
Carolinas /and thereby the coldest/...with the GFS in between. To 
keep a fairly consistent forecast and line up with neighbors and 
per National guidance suggestions...leaned toward the middle of 
the Road with the GFS...but it must be stressed that once we start 
getting a better handle on the track of the low...any small changes 
could result in large changes to the forecast. 


So what we have in store is an all below-freezing column to 
begin with as moisture overspreads the area from the west 
Sunday night. Should begin as all snow everywhere but should 
see a changeover from south to north to sleet and then freezing 
rain starting in the predawn hours on Monday as warm air advection aloft begins 
to kick in. With new guidance...best quantitative precipitation forecast is now on the western 
slopes of the Appalachians and with deep near-freezing isothermal 
layer...expect lower snow ratios /more like 8:1/...lowering further 
still as snow mixes with sleet. An intrusion of dry air by midday 
Monday will really reduce the quantitative precipitation forecast rates across the upstate and 
portions of the NC Piedmont. This will be coincident with the warm air advection 
beginning in earnest at the surface and the surface cold dome will 
erode between 00z-06z Tuesday...so expect just about everywhere 
to see a changeover to rain around this point. Toward daybreak 
Tuesday...the northern mountains may hover around freezing so 
have allowed freezing rain to linger across those areas through 
about daybreak...but then as the cold front approaches will see 
the upper warm nose begin to erode...introducing ice nuclei back 
into the picture...with the short term ending with a return to 
snow across the northern mountains. 


So with all this...highest confidence right now is in 
probability of precipitation...followed by quantitative precipitation forecast...followed by hourly temperatures...followed 
by ptype and then lastly snow/ice accums. Have stuck very close 
to wpc guidance and for snow amounts the result is 4-5 inches 
across the northern mountains...2-4 inches across the Southwest 
Mountains...1-3 inches across the foothills...with up to an 
inch across the northwest Piedmont. The complication with the 
snow amounts is that across the upstate and portions of the NC 
Piedmont /Charlotte area/...a good chunk of that would actually be 
sleet. This complicates areal extent of any possible watches. As 
for freezing rain...best accretion will be across the northern 
tier of the forecast area...with a trace to less than 0.1 elsewhere. 


Since Sunday night is now 3rd period...and after collaboration 
with surrounding offices...have opted to issue a watch. Will 
try to explain the placement as best as possible. Started areas 
northwest of a line generally from Franklin to Asheville to Lenoir 
at 00z Monday to line up with high chance to likely probability of precipitation /all snow/ 
spreading across the mountains. Spread the watch southeast into the 
Piedmont...generally from Carnesville Georgia to gsp to Charlotte...after 
06z Monday as the precipitation spreads southeast. Dropped 
the watch for all but the northern mountains at 00z Tuesday as 
temperatures should be all above freezing by then...but lingered for 
Yancey/Mitchell/Avery through 12z Tuesday. Now...given different 12- 
and 24-hour snow criteria across the forecast area...the watch is a 
bit of a stretch across portions of SW NC where we need 4 inches 
in 12 hours for a warning. Across NE Georgia...upstate SC...and the 
western NC Piedmont...confidence in general is pretty darn low and 
really only based on the fact that we could possibly see enough 
sleet Monday morning...before it melts...to maybe reach warning 
criteria /yes I used possibly and maybe in one sentence/. Probably 
more of an advisory situation but still enough uncertainty in the 
surface low track that I feel okay with the watch. 


I am sure that I missed some meteorological details that were 
incorporated into the grids and watch philosophy but this is long 
enough as it is. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Saturday/... 
as of 230 PM EST Saturday...still think we will have a lull of sorts 
between when the main low pressure center exits and when the 
upstream clipper-like system arrives from the west-northwest. The European model (ecmwf) has a 
faster arrival...essentially by around sunset Tuesday...while the 
GFS does not bring the wave in until some time in the mid-evening. 
Will opt to taper the precipitation probability back to slight chance on the Tennessee 
border at 00z Wednesday...before quickly ramping it back up through 
late evening. The short wave should provide some extra forcing...so 
a likely pop is warranted briefly on Tuesday evening. After the 
short wave passes...moisture becomes shallow and slowly 
diminishes...so the precipitation probability tapers off to a chance for 
Wednesday. Think the GFS has the better handle on keeping the precipitation 
contained to the upslope areas on the Tennessee border...so locations east 
of the Blue Ridge remain dry. As it stands right now...it looks like 
a marginal event. The air mass is not particularly cold. The 850 mb 
winds are more westerly. Backward trajectories show an air stream 
that does not cross the Great Lakes. The ground will probably be 
covered with snow upstream across Tennessee and Kentucky as well. All these 
limiting factors will probably conspire to keep snow amts below 
advisory criteria. The upper pattern will be progressive out in the 
medium range...so that by Wednesday night...the upper trough will move 
offshore and an upstream ridge will start to build in. Thus...a 
warming trend is anticipated through late week with the upper ridge 
axis moving overhead on Friday. Temperatures should climb back to normal 
late Wednesday and Thursday...and then above normal on Friday. The pattern also 
deamplifies late in the week. Another short wave will approach and 
push a surface front across the area on Saturday. Temperatures should be 
warm enough that a precipitation-type problem is not expected. 


&& 


Aviation /04z Sunday through Thursday/... 
at kclt and elsewhere east of the mountains...VFR. Latest satellite 
images indicate clear sky across the foothills and Piedmont...with 
increasing cirrus clouds streaming southeast across the middle Mississippi 
River valley. The high clouds are associated with Arctic high 
pressure pushing across the Great Plains and middle west. As the high 
approaches...winds should veer from the NE and high cloud cover will 
increase. By Sunday afternoon...the center of the high is expected 
to reach the New England coast...with ridging southward. This 
pattern should yield a southeast wind...middle level clouds will develop. Taf 
during this package will remain dry. 


At kavl...conditions will remain similar to foothill and Piedmont 
terminals discussed above. However...gusty north-northwest winds will remain 
within the French Broad River valley through most of tonight. Winds 
will weaken around sunrise...the veer from the south-southeast by middle day. 


Outlook...a strong low pressure system will develop and cross the 
area late Sunday night through Tuesday...bringing widespread 
clouds/precip. This system may produce significant winter 
impacts...especially in the NC mountains 


Confidence table... 


03-09z 09-15z 15-21z 21-00z 
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kavl high 85% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 


The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing 
with the schedule taf issuance flight rule category. Complet hourly 
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts 
are available at the following link: 


Www.Weather.Gov/gsp/aviation 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday 
evening for gaz010-017-018-026. 
NC...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening 
for ncz048-051>053-058-059-062-501>506. 
Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday 
evening for ncz035>037-056-057-063>065-068>072-507>510. 
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning 
for ncz033-049-050. 
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST Sunday for ncz033-049-050. 
SC...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday 
evening for scz001>009. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...sbk 
near term...Ned 
short term...tdp 
long term...PM 
aviation...Ned 






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