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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 48 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of Rain

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
310 am EDT Sat may 25 2013 


Synopsis... 
an upper level trough will move off the Atlantic coast today while 
surface high pressure continues the cooler than normal temperatures 
this weekend. Expect afternoon showers and thunderstorms early next 
week...mainly over the mountains. A rather strong upper ridge will 
bring very warm temperatures for the second half of the week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 200 am...quiet weather on tap for the near term...as high pressure 
continues to build in from the northwest under confluent northwesterly flow aloft. 
Thicknesses being to rebound...but a cold start to the day (min 
temperatures near records (see climate section below)) will keep temperatures 
mainly in the 70s below 3500 feet...under sunny skies. 


Tonight...models in agreement on middle-upper level moisture rounding a 
ridge axis to our west and streaming into the area overnight. The 
increasing cloudiness and rebounding low level thicknesses should result in 
temperatures not as cold as this morning (mainly 40s mountains and upper 40s to 
lower 50s piedmont). 


&& 


Short term /Sunday through Monday night/... 
as of 305 am Saturday...middle and high level clouds will persist over 
the region Sunday...especially in the morning hours. A sprinkle or 
light shower is possible over the mountains. While the region will 
remain under northwest flow later in the day...model time sections show 
decreasing moisture and it should be a nice afternoon with maximum 
temperatures running a few degrees below normal and low humidity. 


One Monday a weak warm front will cross the region from the 
southwest. The GFS has the best moisture pooling with this feature 
down along the upper Savannah River valley and over the central and 
southwest NC mountains the NAM has it more up across the western NC 
Piedmont. The sref probability of 500 j/kg of cape favors areas 
across the upstate and southern NC Piedmont. Overall...I think our 
current area of chance probability of precipitation may be a little too far to the 
north...though I Don/T see any reason to adjust it farther to the 
south with this package. With the ridge beginning to build in during 
the afternoon and the modest instability...even the areas with the 
best chance of rain shouldn/T see more than a 30 to 40 percent 
coverage of convection. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
as of 210 am EDT Saturday...a long wave ridge will control the 
weather over the region from Tuesday Onward. The models...both 
soundings and plan views...indicate that there will be enough low level 
moisture for convection to fire during the day on Tuesday. But with weak 
shear the coverage should be spotty and mainly confined to the 
mountains and foothills. As the ridge strengthens over the region 
Wednesday through Friday...the cape all but disappears on the GFS. 
The European model (ecmwf) is a little more unstable...but in this case I think the 
GFS makes sense and I only have slight chance probability of precipitation over the mountains Wednesday 
and Thursday and nothing on Friday...with dry conditions through the 
period at the lower elevations. In other words...a well below climatology 
chance of precipitation for everyone. With heights rising...I bumped up maximum 
temperatures a degree or two which brings most of the foothills and 
Piedmont solidly into the upper 80s all three days with some 90s by 
Friday. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
at kclt and elsewhere...VFR as dry and quiet high pressure builds 
into the region from the Great Lakes. Winds will remain light 
northerly overnight or go calm. No fog concerns at taf sites despite 
the calm conditions...though a few patches of MVFR fog could be seen 
in the valleys of the SW NC mountains weaker wind profiles will preclude 
gusts on Sat...with winds possibly reflecting Lee troughing by 
afternoon and Flipping to southwest. This is most likely at 
kclt/kgsp/kgmu/kand. Light north/NE wind tonight with some middle-high 
clouds beginning to stream in from the northwest after sunset. 


Outlook...with dry high pressure dominating the weather across the region 
through the weekend...no significant aviation concerns are expected. A 
return to diurnal thunderstorms is expected for Monday through 
Wednesday with associated restrictions in the vicinity of storms. 


Confidence table... 


07-13z 13-19z 19-01z 01-07z 
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 


The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing 
with the scheduled taf issuance flight rule category. Complete 
hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble 
forecasts are available at the following link: (must be lower case) 


Www.Weather.Gov/gsp/aviation_tables 


&& 


Fire weather... 
the 10-hour fuels have dried out enough to reach critical levels 
across much of NE Georgia today. Another dry day is on tap...with a few 
hours of relative humidity values dipping below 25 percent this afternoon. 
Fortunately...winds will be much lighter than yesterday. 
However...the combination of dry fuels and low relative humidity warrants a Fire 
Danger Statement south of the ridge in Rabun County. This also lines 
up with the ffc office. 


&& 


Climate... 
record low temperatures this morning... 


Avl...39 1925 
clt...45 2005 
gsp...46 2005 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
NC...none. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...deo 
near term...Arkansas 
short term...McAvoy 
long term...McAvoy 
aviation...Arkansas 
fire weather...Arkansas 
climate...McAvoy