Updated: 9:29 PM EST on February 8, 2016
Mostly cloudy late this evening...then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow showers late this evening. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows in the lower 20s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly clear. Cold with lows around 15. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.
Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 20.
Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.
Mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. Cold with lows in the lower 20s.
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.
Mostly clear. Cold with lows 10 to 15.
Sunny. Highs in the lower 30s.
Partly cloudy. Cold with lows 15 to 20.
Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.
The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 20
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary is also available
on our home Page at weather.Gov/gsp
********************storm total snowfall********************
Location storm total time/date comments
... Avery County...
Banner Elk 2.5 749 PM 2/08 lees McRae College
... Buncombe County...
5 S Barnardsville 0.2 513 PM 2/08 Blackberry Inn Rd
:2/08/2016, 749 PM, NC, Avery, Banner Elk, , , 36.16240, -81.87230, snow, 2.5, inch, public, lees McRae College
:2/08/2016, 513 PM, NC, Buncombe, Barnardsville, 5, S, 35.71050, -82.46650, snow, 0.2, inch, public, Blackberry Inn Rd
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Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1003 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016 Synopsis... a broad and moist area of low pressure will slowly cross the region through Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure will then build in Thursday and remain through the weekend. && Near term /through Tuesday/... as of 945 PM...a couple of more rounds of more robust snow shower activity is expected along the Tennessee line...per latest radar mosaic upstream to the west. The temperatures continue to cool...and moisture will remain abundant. However...after midnight...the flow will back slightly and weaken out of the west-northwest...which is not as good for upslope forcing. Still...given the trends and already a couple reports of 2 inches or so of snow so far today across Avery County...have opted to upgrade Avery to a Winter Storm Warning through tonight. The rest of The Hazards look on track...as temperatures fall below freezing and snow showers try to work in from the west. East of the mountains...showers have tapered off and skies are clearing. Winds continue to remain elevated and somewhat gusty...and that has also kept temperatures up from the forecast trends. So some tweaks were made to the hourly grids through this evening. Overall...no major changes to winds or snow accums for tonight. As of 700 PM...scattered to numerous showers continue to cross the area this evening...mainly across the mountains and NC foothills and northwest Piedmont. Pop looks largely on track. I cut back slightly across the southern third of the County warning forecast area. So far...only minor accums have been reported in some of the higher elevations of western NC. However...the latest radar mosaic shows plenty of upstream returns. So expect increased snow coverage and rates...especially along the Tennessee line this evening. Otherwise...only minor tweaks to sky/wind/temps with latest observation and satellite. As of 245 PM EST Monday...a broad upper longwave trough continues to highlight the pattern aloft...and also drive the weather at the surface where a cold front continues to slide out of the NC foothills into/through the NC/SC Piedmont as well as northeast Georgia. Light showers associated with said front are having a rough go at it with surface dew point depressions upwards of 25-30 degrees thus prohibiting much of said precipitation from reaching the surface. That said...surface temperatures will begin to cool behind the front allowing for that gap to narrow and thus moistening of the boundary layer will occur. Likewise...a series of 500 mb vorticity maxima will pass through the trough base over the next 4-6 hours...with the first of which doing so at present time. This region of upper support continues to yield enhanced rain/snow showers over the NC mountains...with rain showers breaking containment into the foothills and upper Piedmont locales. Thus...probability of precipitation through the remainder of the afternoon will remain at chance levels over the lower terrain...increasing with elevation towards the Tennessee line where categorical are favored. Probability of precipitation will then taper everywhere outside of the mountains into Tuesday morning as the flow veers gradually and the first of said 500 mb vorticity exits to the east. Probability of precipitation along the Tennessee line will remain elevated at categorical levels as flow becomes more orthogonal to the terrain thus setting up increased upslope potential...lasting through the remainder of the period. As for products...will continue to with current Winter Storm Warning across the already warned locales...extend the current advisory product in time through the day tomorrow...all the while expanding the advisory a bit further south to include Rabun County Georgia given latest high elevation snow totals meeting advisory criteria. New snow totals top out in the 2-4 inch range along the Tennessee line with a 1-3 inches possible eastward along the Escarpment. && Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/... as of 225 PM Monday...protracted northwest flow snow event will be underway at the beginning of the period...continuing through at least Wednesday night before the moisture finally becomes too shallow to support much in the way of shower generation. In the interim...the most impressive aspect of this event will be the thermodynamic structure in the upslope layer...with temperatures as cold as -20 at the top of the moist layer through much of the period. Temperatures this cold usually support efficient snowfall producing showers...with often outlandish snow:liquid ratios in the neighborhood of 30:1. However...the question is whether there will be enough liquid produced to achieve warning/watch criteria snowfall on appropriate time and spatial scales. Some of the other ingredients that one typically likes to see for a heavy northwest flow snow event are missing...including the orientation of the flow. The magnitude of the 800 mb flow almost never exceeds 25 kts through the period...while the direction remains mostly west-northwest. Thus...the actual component of the flow orthogonal to the southern Appalachians is relatively weak. The other consequence of the less-than-ideal flow orientation is that low level trajectories do not originate from the Great Lakes...which is typically needed to produce the type of upstream steep low level lapse rates/high Froude numbers necessary to produce a lot of liquid equivalent. Indeed... the short term guidance depicts the best low level lapse rates/Froude numbers upstream of the central Appalachians...while they are quite modest from central Kentucky through east Tennessee. Overall... this doesn/T appear to be a setup conducive to a warning-level event. Having said that...there are locations across the high elevations of the smokies and other high peaks and ridge tops along the Tennessee border that will probably see storm totals of more than a foot throughout this prolonged event...but these amounts would fall on time/spatial scales that do not warrant a warning...but rather an advisory. Otherwise...it will be quite cold through the period...with temperatures averaging a good 15 degrees below climatology. Wind chill values will reach advisory criteria across the high elevations of western NC Tuesday night...and across all of the mountains Wednesday night. In fact...locations above 3500 feet may see warning ccriteria wind chill of -15 or less Wednesday night. && Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... as of 215 PM EST Monday...a broad eastern Continental U.S. Trough will be in place at the start of the period on Friday. General agreement remains among the model solutions in the large scale pattern...but with important differences in the specifics and the associated sensible weather. There is confidence that a mostly channeled lobe of vorticity will move swiftly through the base of the trough over the forecast area on Friday. However..moisture availability in the profiles remains uncertain...with the GFS exhibiting less low level moisture and slightly warmer profiles...while the European model (ecmwf) has slightly deeper moisture...colder temperatures...and better upglide ahead of the wavey ensemble means are in between and a consensus approach will be followed with mainly mountain precipitation chances...slight chances out over the eastern Piedmont...and some degree of a shifting northwest to southeast rain/snow line Friday to Friday night. Any snow accumulations at this point should be confined to the NC mountains. All solutions then exhibit robust northwest flow that persists on the back side of the Friday night through Saturday...with upslope moisture steadily paring back toward the Tennessee line and then the northern mountains before ending. Heights will build from the west Saturday night through Sunday...with low level moisture continuing to dry up across the upslope areas. A lingering northwest flow pressure gradient combined with very cold air from the Arctic high settling in could well lead to wind chill issues Saturday night. There is some agreement among the ecm/GFS/ensembles on another rapidly moving wave diving through the plains Sunday night and reaching the southern Appalachians on Monday. This could set US up for yet another round of rain/snow showers...with mixed ptypes definitely possible given the recent Arctic air. Given the appearance of the incoming 12z European model (ecmwf)...stay tuned on this one. && Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/... at kclt and all sites outside the mountains...VFR expected through the period...as potent middle level disturbance exits to the east. Ceilings will be generally middle level (around 8000 to 12000 ft) through the overnight. Then some lower VFR ceilings expected with daytime heating on Tuesday. Winds will veer northwest and remain elevated through the night with perhaps an occasional gust as cold advection prevails. Wind gusts will resume by around midday...with winds generally west-southwest to west-northwest Tuesday afternoon. At kavl...confidence is lower on how much snow shower activity will persist...and whether there will be prevailing MVFR visibility and/or ceilings. Given radar trends at time of taf issuance...have a four hour tempo for potential MVFR conditions in -shsn. Then have a prob30 from 09z to 15z. Cross-Valley flow will veer enough to allow some north-northwest wind gusts this evening and again during the day on Tuesday...as cold advection continues. Otherwise...expect generally low VFR ceilings...with north-northwest winds around 6-10 kts. Outlook...several strong upper disturbances embedded in a deep upper trough will swing across the area through Wednesday. Moisture and cold air will continue to flow into the area during this time period. Restrictions will be possible...particularly in the mountains where there are high chances of accumulating snow. Confidence table... 03-09z 09-15z 15-21z 21-00z kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% kavl high 100% high 98% high 98% high 100% khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the schedule taf issuance flight rule category. Complet hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: Www.Weather.Gov/gsp/aviation && Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... Georgia...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for gaz010. NC...Winter Storm Warning until 7 am EST Tuesday for ncz033-048>052- 058-059. Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday for ncz033-048>052-058-059-062>064. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ncz053-062- 063. SC...none. && $$ Synopsis...sbk near term...Ark/cdg short term...jdl long term...hg aviation...Arkansas