Hickory, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 33°
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • Wind: W 9 mph
  • Humidity: 67%
  • Visibility: miles
  • Dew Point: 23°
  • Pressure: in.
  • Heat Index: 26

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Next 12 Hours

12  am
3  am
6  am
9  am
12  pm
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
36°
33°
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37°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Tuesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 39 °
  • Low: 23 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Wednesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 35 °
  • Low: 18 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Thursday
  • Clear
  • High: 39 °
  • Low: 22 °
  • Clear
  • Friday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 41 °
  • Low: 26 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Saturday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 34 °
  • Low: 11 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Hickory, North Carolina

Updated: 9:29 PM EST on February 8, 2016

  • Tonight

    Mostly cloudy late this evening...then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow showers late this evening. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

  • Tuesday

    Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows in the lower 20s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Mostly clear. Cold with lows around 15. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 20.

  • Friday

    Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.

  • Friday Night

    Mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. Cold with lows in the lower 20s.

  • Saturday

    Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

  • Saturday Night

    Mostly clear. Cold with lows 10 to 15.

  • Sunday

    Sunny. Highs in the lower 30s.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy. Cold with lows 15 to 20.

  • Washingtons Birthday

    Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Public Information Statement  Statement as of 10:45 PM EST on February 08, 2016


The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 20
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary is also available
on our home Page at weather.Gov/gsp

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
                     snowfall of
                     /inches/ measurement

North Carolina

... Avery County...
   Banner Elk 2.5 749 PM 2/08 lees McRae College

... Buncombe County...
   5 S Barnardsville 0.2 513 PM 2/08 Blackberry Inn Rd

&&

*****metadata*****
:2/08/2016, 749 PM, NC, Avery, Banner Elk, , , 36.16240, -81.87230, snow, 2.5, inch, public, lees McRae College
:2/08/2016, 513 PM, NC, Buncombe, Barnardsville, 5, S, 35.71050, -82.46650, snow, 0.2, inch, public, Blackberry Inn Rd



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NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
1003 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016 


Synopsis... 
a broad and moist area of low pressure will slowly cross the region 
through Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure will then build in 
Thursday and remain through the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through Tuesday/... 
as of 945 PM...a couple of more rounds of more robust snow shower 
activity is expected along the Tennessee line...per latest radar mosaic 
upstream to the west. The temperatures continue to cool...and moisture will 
remain abundant. However...after midnight...the flow will back 
slightly and weaken out of the west-northwest...which is not as good for 
upslope forcing. Still...given the trends and already a couple 
reports of 2 inches or so of snow so far today across Avery 
County...have opted to upgrade Avery to a Winter Storm Warning through 
tonight. The rest of The Hazards look on track...as temperatures fall below 
freezing and snow showers try to work in from the west. East of the 
mountains...showers have tapered off and skies are clearing. Winds 
continue to remain elevated and somewhat gusty...and that has also 
kept temperatures up from the forecast trends. So some tweaks were made to the 
hourly grids through this evening. Overall...no major changes to winds 
or snow accums for tonight. 


As of 700 PM...scattered to numerous showers continue to cross the 
area this evening...mainly across the mountains and NC foothills and northwest 
Piedmont. Pop looks largely on track. I cut back slightly across the 
southern third of the County warning forecast area. So far...only minor accums have been 
reported in some of the higher elevations of western NC. 
However...the latest radar mosaic shows plenty of upstream returns. 
So expect increased snow coverage and rates...especially along the Tennessee line 
this evening. Otherwise...only minor tweaks to sky/wind/temps with 
latest observation and satellite. 


As of 245 PM EST Monday...a broad upper longwave trough continues to 
highlight the pattern aloft...and also drive the weather at the surface 
where a cold front continues to slide out of the NC foothills 
into/through the NC/SC Piedmont as well as northeast Georgia. Light 
showers associated with said front are having a rough go at it with 
surface dew point depressions upwards of 25-30 degrees thus prohibiting 
much of said precipitation from reaching the surface. That said...surface 
temperatures will begin to cool behind the front allowing for that gap 
to narrow and thus moistening of the boundary layer will occur. 
Likewise...a series of 500 mb vorticity maxima will pass through 
the trough base over the next 4-6 hours...with the first of which 
doing so at present time. This region of upper support continues 
to yield enhanced rain/snow showers over the NC mountains...with rain 
showers breaking containment into the foothills and upper Piedmont 
locales. Thus...probability of precipitation through the remainder of the afternoon will 
remain at chance levels over the lower terrain...increasing with 
elevation towards the Tennessee line where categorical are favored. 
Probability of precipitation will then taper everywhere outside of the mountains into Tuesday 
morning as the flow veers gradually and the first of said 500 mb vorticity 
exits to the east. Probability of precipitation along the Tennessee line will remain elevated at 
categorical levels as flow becomes more orthogonal to the terrain 
thus setting up increased upslope potential...lasting through the 
remainder of the period. 


As for products...will continue to with current Winter Storm Warning 
across the already warned locales...extend the current advisory 
product in time through the day tomorrow...all the while expanding 
the advisory a bit further south to include Rabun County Georgia given 
latest high elevation snow totals meeting advisory criteria. 
New snow totals top out in the 2-4 inch range along the Tennessee line 
with a 1-3 inches possible eastward along the Escarpment. 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/... 
as of 225 PM Monday...protracted northwest flow snow event will be underway 
at the beginning of the period...continuing through at least Wednesday 
night before the moisture finally becomes too shallow to support 
much in the way of shower generation. In the interim...the most 
impressive aspect of this event will be the thermodynamic structure 
in the upslope layer...with temperatures as cold as -20 at the top of the 
moist layer through much of the period. Temperatures this cold usually 
support efficient snowfall producing showers...with often outlandish 
snow:liquid ratios in the neighborhood of 30:1. However...the 
question is whether there will be enough liquid produced to achieve 
warning/watch criteria snowfall on appropriate time and spatial 
scales. 


Some of the other ingredients that one typically likes to see for a 
heavy northwest flow snow event are missing...including the orientation of 
the flow. The magnitude of the 800 mb flow almost never exceeds 25 kts 
through the period...while the direction remains mostly west-northwest. 
Thus...the actual component of the flow orthogonal to the southern 
Appalachians is relatively weak. The other consequence of the 
less-than-ideal flow orientation is that low level trajectories do 
not originate from the Great Lakes...which is typically needed to 
produce the type of upstream steep low level lapse rates/high Froude 
numbers necessary to produce a lot of liquid equivalent. Indeed... 
the short term guidance depicts the best low level lapse 
rates/Froude numbers upstream of the central Appalachians...while 
they are quite modest from central Kentucky through east Tennessee. Overall... 
this doesn/T appear to be a setup conducive to a warning-level 
event. Having said that...there are locations across the high 
elevations of the smokies and other high peaks and ridge tops along 
the Tennessee border that will probably see storm totals of more than a 
foot throughout this prolonged event...but these amounts would fall 
on time/spatial scales that do not warrant a warning...but rather an 
advisory. 


Otherwise...it will be quite cold through the period...with temperatures 
averaging a good 15 degrees below climatology. Wind chill values will 
reach advisory criteria across the high elevations of western NC Tuesday 
night...and across all of the mountains Wednesday night. In 
fact...locations above 3500 feet may see warning ccriteria wind chill 
of -15 or less Wednesday night. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... 
as of 215 PM EST Monday...a broad eastern Continental U.S. Trough will be in 
place at the start of the period on Friday. General agreement remains 
among the model solutions in the large scale pattern...but with 
important differences in the specifics and the associated sensible 
weather. There is confidence that a mostly channeled lobe of 
vorticity will move swiftly through the base of the trough over the 
forecast area on Friday. However..moisture availability in the profiles 
remains uncertain...with the GFS exhibiting less low level moisture 
and slightly warmer profiles...while the European model (ecmwf) has slightly deeper 
moisture...colder temperatures...and better upglide ahead of the 
wavey ensemble means are in between and a consensus approach will 
be followed with mainly mountain precipitation chances...slight chances out 
over the eastern Piedmont...and some degree of a shifting northwest to southeast 
rain/snow line Friday to Friday night. Any snow accumulations at 
this point should be confined to the NC mountains. 


All solutions then exhibit robust northwest flow that persists on 
the back side of the Friday night through Saturday...with upslope 
moisture steadily paring back toward the Tennessee line and then the 
northern mountains before ending. Heights will build from the west 
Saturday night through Sunday...with low level moisture continuing 
to dry up across the upslope areas. A lingering northwest flow pressure 
gradient combined with very cold air from the Arctic high settling 
in could well lead to wind chill issues Saturday night. 


There is some agreement among the ecm/GFS/ensembles on another 
rapidly moving wave diving through the plains Sunday night and 
reaching the southern Appalachians on Monday. This could set US up 
for yet another round of rain/snow showers...with mixed ptypes 
definitely possible given the recent Arctic air. Given the 
appearance of the incoming 12z European model (ecmwf)...stay tuned on this one. 


&& 


Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
at kclt and all sites outside the mountains...VFR expected through the 
period...as potent middle level disturbance exits to the east. Ceilings 
will be generally middle level (around 8000 to 12000 ft) through the 
overnight. Then some lower VFR ceilings expected with daytime heating on 
Tuesday. Winds will veer northwest and remain elevated through the night 
with perhaps an occasional gust as cold advection prevails. Wind 
gusts will resume by around midday...with winds generally west-southwest to west-northwest 
Tuesday afternoon. 


At kavl...confidence is lower on how much snow shower activity will 
persist...and whether there will be prevailing MVFR visibility and/or 
ceilings. Given radar trends at time of taf issuance...have a four hour 
tempo for potential MVFR conditions in -shsn. Then have a prob30 
from 09z to 15z. Cross-Valley flow will veer enough to allow some north-northwest 
wind gusts this evening and again during the day on Tuesday...as 
cold advection continues. Otherwise...expect generally low VFR 
ceilings...with north-northwest winds around 6-10 kts. 


Outlook...several strong upper disturbances embedded in a deep 
upper trough will swing across the area through Wednesday. Moisture 
and cold air will continue to flow into the area during this 
time period. Restrictions will be possible...particularly in the 
mountains where there are high chances of accumulating snow. 


Confidence table... 


03-09z 09-15z 15-21z 21-00z 
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kavl high 100% high 98% high 98% high 100% 
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 


The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing 
with the schedule taf issuance flight rule category. Complet hourly 
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts 
are available at the following link: 


Www.Weather.Gov/gsp/aviation 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for gaz010. 
NC...Winter Storm Warning until 7 am EST Tuesday for ncz033-048>052- 
058-059. 
Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday 
for ncz033-048>052-058-059-062>064. 
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ncz053-062- 
063. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...sbk 
near term...Ark/cdg 
short term...jdl 
long term...hg 
aviation...Arkansas 



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