Rock Hill, South Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 47°
  • Clear
  • Wind: West 6 mph
  • Humidity: 33%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 19°
  • Pressure: 30.15 in. 0

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Next 12 Hours

3  pm
6  pm
9  pm
12  am
3  am
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
47°
41°
34°
30°
29°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Thursday
  • Clear
  • High: 47 °
  • Low: 26 °
  • Clear
  • Friday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 45 °
  • Low: 24 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Saturday
  • Clear
  • High: 36 °
  • Low: 17 °
  • Clear
  • Sunday
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • High: 37 °
  • Low: 23 °
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Ice Pellets
  • High: 37 °
  • Low: 34 °
  • Ice Pellets

Forecast for Rock Hill, South Carolina

Updated: 3:31 PM EST on February 11, 2016

  • Tonight

    Partly cloudy this evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

  • Friday

    Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s. Northeast winds around 5 mph...becoming northwest in the afternoon.

  • Friday Night

    Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Mostly clear. Cold with lows around 19. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s.

  • Sunday Night

    Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows in the mid 20s.

  • Washingtons Birthday

    Cloudy with a chance of freezing rain. A chance of snow and sleet in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

  • Monday Night

    Rain likely. Near steady temperatures in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

  • Tuesday

    Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs around 50.

  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.

  • Wednesday

    Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

  • Wednesday Night

    Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.

  • Thursday

    Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Public Information Statement  Statement as of 9:50 am EST on February 11, 2016


The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 24
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary is also available
on our home Page at weather.Gov/gsp

**********************24 hour snowfall**********************

Location 24 hour time/date comments
                     snowfall of
                     /inches/ measurement

North Carolina

... Avery County...
   beech mtn 3.0 730 am 2/11 co-op observer
   3 ENE Linville 1.1 1100 am 2/10 cocorahs
   1 E Flat Springs 0.3 700 am 2/11 co-op observer

... Madison County...
   5 NNE Mars Hill 1.0 630 am 2/11 cocorahs
   14 NNW Marshall 0.6 800 am 2/11 cocorahs
   15 NNE Marshall 0.5 700 am 2/11 cocorahs

... Mitchell County...
   5 N Bakersville 0.6 800 am 2/11 cocorahs

... Yancey County...
   5 N Burnsville 0.5 700 am 2/11 cocorahs
   7 W Burnsville 0.4 1000 am 2/10 cocorahs
   6 SSW Burnsville 0.2 800 am 2/11 cocorahs
   7 SSW Burnsville 0.1 830 am 2/11 cocorahs


***********************snow on ground***********************

Location snow time/date comments
                     on ground of
                     /inches/ measurement

North Carolina

... Avery County...
   1 E Flat Springs 5.0 700 am 2/11 co-op observer
   3 ENE Linville 2.2 1100 am 2/10 cocorahs

... Buncombe County...
   4 N Weaverville 0.3 700 am 2/11 cocorahs

... Haywood County...
   3 ENE Maggie Valley 0.2 700 am 2/11 cocorahs

... Madison County...
   14 NNW Marshall 16.0 800 am 2/11 cocorahs
   15 NNE Marshall 6.5 700 am 2/11 cocorahs
   5 NNE Mars Hill 5.5 630 am 2/11 cocorahs
   Hot Springs 2.0 700 am 2/11 co-op observer
   5 SW Marshall 1.0 800 am 2/11 cocorahs

... Mitchell County...
   5 N Bakersville 8.0 800 am 2/11 cocorahs
   3 se Bakersville 1.0 800 am 2/11 cocorahs

... Yancey County...
   6 SSW Burnsville 2.0 800 am 2/11 cocorahs
   7 W Burnsville 2.0 1000 am 2/10 cocorahs
   7 SSW Burnsville 1.5 830 am 2/11 cocorahs
   5 N Burnsville 1.0 700 am 2/11 cocorahs

&&

*****metadata*****
:2/11/2016, 730 am, NC, Avery, beech mtn, , , 36.18778, -81.87361, snow_24, 3.0, inch, co-op observer,
:2/10/2016, 1100 am, NC, Avery, Linville, 3, ENE, 36.08952, -81.83565, snow_24, 1.1, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 700 am, NC, Avery, Flat Springs, 1, E, 36.25278, -81.91361, snow_24, 0.3, inch, co-op observer,
:2/11/2016, 630 am, NC, Madison, Mars Hill, 5, NNE, 35.89620, -82.52120, snow_24, 1.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 800 am, NC, Madison, Marshall, 14, NNW, 35.98208, -82.76719, snow_24, 0.6, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 700 am, NC, Madison, Marshall, 15, NNE, 36.00835, -82.61822, snow_24, 0.5, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 800 am, NC, Mitchell, Bakersville, 5, N, 36.09200, -82.17500, snow_24, 0.6, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 700 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 5, N, 35.98197, -82.28522, snow_24, 0.5, inch, cocorahs,
:2/10/2016, 1000 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 7, W, 35.91260, -82.42300, snow_24, 0.4, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 800 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 6, SSW, 35.83863, -82.34143, snow_24, 0.2, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 830 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 7, SSW, 35.82968, -82.32850, snow_24, 0.1, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 700 am, NC, Avery, Flat Springs, 1, E, 36.25278, -81.91361, snow_d, 5.0, inch, co-op observer,
:2/10/2016, 1100 am, NC, Avery, Linville, 3, ENE, 36.08952, -81.83565, snow_d, 2.2, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 700 am, NC, Buncombe, Weaverville, 4, N, 35.75790, -82.56181, snow_d, 0.3, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 700 am, NC, Haywood, Maggie Valley, 3, ENE, 35.53890, -83.04670, snow_d, 0.2, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 800 am, NC, Madison, Marshall, 14, NNW, 35.98208, -82.76719, snow_d, 16.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 700 am, NC, Madison, Marshall, 15, NNE, 36.00835, -82.61822, snow_d, 6.5, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 630 am, NC, Madison, Mars Hill, 5, NNE, 35.89620, -82.52120, snow_d, 5.5, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 700 am, NC, Madison, Hot Springs, , , 35.89361, -82.82250, snow_d, 2.0, inch, co-op observer,
:2/11/2016, 800 am, NC, Madison, Marshall, 5, SW, 35.75638, -82.75304, snow_d, 1.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 800 am, NC, Mitchell, Bakersville, 5, N, 36.09200, -82.17500, snow_d, 8.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 800 am, NC, Mitchell, Bakersville, 3, se, 35.98900, -82.12800, snow_d, 1.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 800 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 6, SSW, 35.83863, -82.34143, snow_d, 2.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/10/2016, 1000 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 7, W, 35.91260, -82.42300, snow_d, 2.0, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 830 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 7, SSW, 35.82968, -82.32850, snow_d, 1.5, inch, cocorahs,
:2/11/2016, 700 am, NC, Yancey, Burnsville, 5, N, 35.98197, -82.28522, snow_d, 1.0, inch, cocorahs,



Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Winthrop University, Rock Hill, SC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 48.2 °F Dew Point: 18 °F Humidity: 29% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.12 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Shetland Lane, Rock Hill, SC

Updated: 3:55 PM EST

Temperature: 51.1 °F Dew Point: 32 °F Humidity: 48% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.14 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Country Club Estates, Rock Hill, SC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 47.3 °F Dew Point: 17 °F Humidity: 29% Wind: West at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Twinoaks Observatory, Rock Hill, SC

Updated: 3:29 PM EST

Temperature: 48.8 °F Dew Point: 26 °F Humidity: 40% Wind: South at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.13 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: Quail Meadow, Rock Hill, SC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 50.7 °F Dew Point: 14 °F Humidity: 23% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.05 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Chapel Gate, Rock Hill, SC

Updated: 3:47 PM EST

Temperature: 54.5 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 28% Wind: SW at 1.7 mph Pressure: 30.10 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: - Graphs

Location: waters estates, Rock Hill, SC

Updated: 3:53 PM EST

Temperature: 47.3 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: SSE at 1.1 mph Pressure: 29.80 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET, Rock Hill, SC

Updated: 3:38 PM EST

Temperature: 48 °F Dew Point: 24 °F Humidity: 38% Wind: SE at 1 mph Pressure: 30.19 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Walter Elisha Park Area, Fort Mill, SC

Updated: 3:59 PM EST

Temperature: 47.3 °F Dew Point: 19 °F Humidity: 32% Wind: North at 2.5 mph Pressure: 30.16 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Sandy Pointe, Fort Mill, SC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 54.9 °F Dew Point: 21 °F Humidity: 26% Wind: West at 1.1 mph Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Windjammer, Tega Cay, Tega Cay, SC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 46.9 °F Dew Point: 19 °F Humidity: 32% Wind: WSW at 2.9 mph Pressure: 30.17 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: State Route 1583, Rock Hill, SC

Updated: 3:55 PM EST

Temperature: 51.3 °F Dew Point: 30 °F Humidity: 44% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.21 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Old Springs Road, Fort Mill, SC

Updated: 3:55 PM EST

Temperature: 45.9 °F Dew Point: 23 °F Humidity: 40% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.39 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

Location: The Lakes at Derby Downs, York, SC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 47.0 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: NNW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.09 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Foxwood Subdivision, Fort Mill, SC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 46.8 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 37% Wind: West at 1.7 mph Pressure: 29.53 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Bartlett Tree Research Laboratories, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 12:06 PM EST

Temperature: 39.4 °F Dew Point: 19 °F Humidity: 44% Wind: SW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.25 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 39 °F Graphs

Location: Silver Run, Fort Mill, SC

Updated: 3:54 PM EST

Temperature: 52.2 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: ESE at 2.2 mph Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Pineview, McConnells, SC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 47.1 °F Dew Point: 19 °F Humidity: 32% Wind: SSW at 2.5 mph Pressure: 30.15 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Bridgehampton SC, Fort Mill, SC

Updated: 3:52 PM EST

Temperature: 45.5 °F Dew Point: 21 °F Humidity: 38% Wind: SW at 5.3 mph Pressure: 30.00 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 43 °F Graphs

Location: Van Wyck, SC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 45.9 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: WNW at 4.0 mph Pressure: 30.17 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 44 °F Graphs

Location: Beacon Knoll, Fort Mill, SC

Updated: 3:56 PM EST

Temperature: 45.1 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.08 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 45 °F Graphs

Location: Bridgehampton, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 3:54 PM EST

Temperature: 47.1 °F Dew Point: 23 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: SSE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.20 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History, York, SC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 47.9 °F Dew Point: 25 °F Humidity: 41% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.14 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Cardinal Woods, Pineville, NC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 48.4 °F Dew Point: 25 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: WNW at 4.0 mph Pressure: 30.15 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Chastain Village, Fort Mill, SC

Updated: 3:49 PM EST

Temperature: 49.8 °F Dew Point: 24 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: NNW at 5.3 mph Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Ballantyne West, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 3:55 PM EST

Temperature: 44.6 °F Dew Point: 25 °F Humidity: 45% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.19 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 45 °F Graphs

Location: Riverpointe, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 3:55 PM EST

Temperature: 53.6 °F Dew Point: 20 °F Humidity: 26% Wind: WSW at 2.5 mph Pressure: 29.44 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET, Lando, SC

Updated: 3:27 PM EST

Temperature: 49 °F Dew Point: 26 °F Humidity: 41% Wind: NNW at 1 mph Pressure: 30.14 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: Provincetowne, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 3:55 PM EST

Temperature: 45.3 °F Dew Point: 24 °F Humidity: 43% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 45 °F Graphs

Location: Oakbrook, Marvin, NC

Updated: 3:45 PM EST

Temperature: 48.5 °F Dew Point: 24 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: WNW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.10 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Provincetowne, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 3:55 PM EST

Temperature: 57.7 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 48% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.46 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Walnut Creek, Charlotte, NC

Updated: 3:58 PM EST

Temperature: 48.2 °F Dew Point: 18 °F Humidity: 30% Wind: South at 3.1 mph Pressure: 30.11 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Beechwood - Marvin NC, Waxhaw, NC

Updated: 3:48 PM EST

Temperature: 49.3 °F Dew Point: 22 °F Humidity: 34% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: Tyndale Court, Marvin, NC

Updated: 3:55 PM EST

Temperature: 47.8 °F Dew Point: 25 °F Humidity: 41% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.97 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
303 PM EST Thursday Feb 11 2016 


Synopsis... 
a fast-moving upper level disturbance will bring a brief chance of 
precipitation to parts of the area Friday. A stronger dome of 
Canadian high pressure will settle in for the weekend...ushering in 
another period of cold temperatures. This will be followed by 
another weather system which will produce a better chance of 
precipitation early next week. 


&& 


Near term /through Friday/... 
at 230 PM Thursday...an upper trough will remain over the Easter USA 
tonight and Friday. Channeled upper level vorticity rounding this 
trough will approach the southern Appalachians late tongight... 
crossing the western Carolinas on Friday. Meanwhile...at the 
surface...the models are coming into alignment on developing a 
surface wave over the Gulf states ahead of and to the south of the 
channeled vorticity. Modest isentropic upglide to the NE of this 
surface wave will support precipitation over our area...starting 
before daybreak. Vertical profiles support mainly snow...with 
perhaps some mixed precipitation in the upper Savannah River 
valley...though very little ice accumulation is expected there. 


By midday the surface low moves off the SC coast where it closes off 
and deepens....while the bulk or precipitation moves east of our 
area. Veering low level winds support upslope flow snow in the NC 
mountains bordering Tennessee...with rain or freezing rain in the valleys 
nearer the Blue Ridge. At this point the best bet for snow 
accumulations appears to be in the NC mountains...where snow totals 
may reach two inches on the highest peaks near the Tennessee border. 


&& 


Short term /Friday night through Sunday/... 
as of 245 PM Thursday...a ridiculously cold weekend is in store for 
the area for the short term with a strong upper trough in place 
over the eastern Seaboard and cold Arctic high pressure building 
in at the surface in the wake of the cold front crossing the area 
Friday and Friday night. To start with however...we will continue 
to see some lingering northwest flow snow showers in the northern 
mountains through early Saturday...though do not really expect 
much more in the way of additional accumulation...maybe another 
half inch at most but probably not even that as moisture is pretty 
anemic through the column. Other concern will be tight pressure 
gradient as the surface high builds in...which will lead to strong 
winds over the mountains. Do not quite meet Wind Advisory criteria 
except at the highest elevations...but with colder temperatures 
filtering in...definitely have widespread Wind Chill Advisory 
criteria over the mountains. Since Friday night is still 3rd 
period...will opt for now to leave the wind chill wording in the 
severe weather potential statement but an advisory will likely be needed by tomorrow afternoon. 


Deep layer...very strong cold air advection builds across the southeast Friday 
night into Saturday...with at least weak cold air advection continuing through 
Sunday morning. Resulting high temperatures on Saturday will barely 
make it into the lower 40s for extreme southern zones...and remain 
in the teens over the northern mountains. Sunday will be even 
colder as the Arctic high pressure settles overhead...with highs 
at best upper 30s extreme south and at or below freezing for a good 
portion of the area. Sunday morning will see very cold temperatures 
as well...and all this combined will lead to average temperatures 
that meet cold wave criteria /average daily temperature of 25 or 
less for Asheville...29 or less for Charlotte...and 30 or less for 
gsp/. Will continue to highlight this in the severe weather potential statement but may have to 
issue an Special Weather Statement sometime in the next 24-36 hours to cover the impacts 
from this. 


Clouds will be on the increase Sunday as the next system 
begins diving down into the plains...which will be our next big 
weather-maker as we transition into the extended. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
as of 300 PM Thursday...the operational models have come into better 
agreement with the next weather system expected to affect the 
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia early next week. The GFS/ECMWF/ 
Canadian all have a similar depiction of the amplitude and timing of 
the 500 mb trough expected to dig down over the plains on Sunday 
night...with the trough axis crossing the MS river on Monday 
afternoon. Thus...confidence is slowly increasing as the models 
start to agree on an overall scenario of a higher amplitude trough... 
even if timing remains off. The models generally show a more inland 
track of a primary surface low across north Georgia Monday night and the 
Carolina Piedmont on Tuesday morning. If that works out...it would 
most likely mean strong warm advection across the Piedmont and 
foothills Monday afternoon and night which would almost assuredly 
force a changeover to rain across most of the Piedmont and even a 
good bit of the mountains what remains to be seen is how much falls as 
something other than rain before the transition occurs. Of 
course...uncertainty remains high...so the Reader is urged to manage 
his/her expectations accordingly. 


Light precipitation should break out across the forecast area Sunday night and 
Monday morning as moisture returns and isentropic upglide gradually 
strengthens to the north of a developing warm front across the deep 
south. Because we should begin the event with a cold and dry air 
mass in place...anything that falls before about midday Monday 
should be in the form of snow. However...as the low approaches from 
the west...warm advection will increase from the south. The models 
agree that a warm nose should develop on Monday afternoon that will 
bring a changeover to sleet and then perhaps a brief period of 
freezing rain across the area along and S of the I-85 corridor. We 
lack a strong parent high to the northeast...which is a significant 
limiting factor on the winter precipitation potential. Thus...it is hard to 
imagine it will not be a mostly rain event across most of the region 
Monday night...perhaps with some heavy rain that might cause minor 
flooding issues. The NC foothills...Blue Ridge...and part of the northwest 
Piedmont will be the exception...as usual...because cold air will be 
trapped the longest...well into Monday night. As it stands right 
now...the transition to freezing rain will occur early Monday 
evening and then it will stay that way into early Tuesday morning. 
This has the potential to produce ice accumulate of around one quarter 
inch in the I-40 corridor and Blue Ridge before the changeover to 
rain around daybreak Tuesday. Forcing is the strongest and moisture 
the deepest Monday night. Have limited the precipitation probability to the likely 
range for now...mostly over uncertainty in the precipitation type forecast. As 
the low pulls away Tuesday...colder air will move back in from the 
west...and precipitation will change back over to snow across the NC 
mountains as the event winds down. 


After 00z Wednesday...with the general exception of the 
mountains...should see pretty quiet sensible weather conditions 
for the end of the forecast period. In the wake of the early week 
system...mean upper troughing will remain in place over the eastern 
portion of the country...with another clipper system diving down the 
flow and pushing into the southern Appalachians Tuesday night. The 
12z European model (ecmwf) is much faster with this...really right on the heels of 
the earlier system and exiting it out of the area by Wednesday 
morning. The GFS holds onto some upslope snow in the northwest 
flow aloft through Wednesday night. Have taken sort of a blend 
but leaded toward the slightly snowier solution of the GFS for 
the mountains as northwest flow snow is a reasonable expectation 
with the strong upper trough in place. It should warm up enough 
on Wednesday to change over to rain...but with below-freezing 
temperatures again Wednesday night...anything else that falls would 
be snow but very light and dry at this point...with dry air aloft 
above about 750mb /5kft/ quickly develops as the brief deeper 
moisture associated with the clipper moves east. Have included 
generally trace accumulations of snow. 


Behind this last clipper...upper ridging will build into the 
center of the country. Operational models at odds with the 
progressive nature of the longwave system...with the European model (ecmwf) quite 
a bit stronger with the upper ridge...and resultant confluent flow 
over the Great Lakes and New England allows a dry onset classical 
cad event to develop...whereas the GFS pushes that upper ridge 
right on through. Either way the end of the period looks dry...just 
some uncertainty on temperatures so have taken a blend and show a 
general warming trend as thicknesses increase with the increasing 
upper ridging. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
at kclt...a low VFR ceiling will spread into the area late tonight... 
falling to IFR by middle Friday morning...as low level moisture 
increases. Winds are expected to veer from west-southwest to northwest this 
afternoon...then to NE tonight. Snow showers are expected to reach 
the area by dawn...persisting through midday...but at this point the 
chances is quite low...and visibility restrictions will not be carried at 
this time. 


Elsewhere...high ceilings will arrive this evening...followed by low VFR 
ceilings after midnight...as low level moisture increases. By middle 
morning IFR ceilings are expected at SC sites. Foothill winds will veer 
from SW to NE this evening...while kavl winds veer from northwest to southeast 
overnight an back to northwest after dawn. Snow showers are expected to 
reach NC sites before dawn...but chances are rather low...and visibility 
restrictions will not be carried at this time. Snow cannot totally 
be ruled out at SC sites...but is not in the forecast at this time. 


Outlook...low VFR ot IFR ceilings are possible on Friday...as an 
upper low moves up the Carolina coast. An Arctic air mass will build 
over the region this weekend...with upslope clouds on the west side 
of the Appalachians. A significant winter weather system is possible 
early next week. 


Confidence table... 


20-02z 02-08z 08-14z 14-18z 
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% medium 75% 
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% medium 68% 
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 81% 
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 85% 
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% medium 68% 
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% medium 77% 


The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing 
with the schedule taf issuance flight rule category. Complet hourly 
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts 
are available at the following link: 


Www.Weather.Gov/gsp/aviation 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
NC...none. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...csh 
near term...jat 
short term...tdp 
long term...PM/tdp 
aviation...jat 



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)

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