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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 85 °
• Low: 64 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 63 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 48 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 54 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
239 PM EDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Synopsis... 
an approaching upper level trough will continue to influence the 
region through midweek. Southerly flow will keep the area warm and 
generally unsettled with storm chances each afternoon. A cooler and 
drier airmass settles in for the weekend after a cold front moves 
through Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /through Wednesday/... 
at 230 PM EST Tuesday...still seeing an evolving convective 
situation across the County warning forecast area as weak forcing is maintained within a 
very broad 500 mb trough. Still expect pulse severe later this afternoon 
mainly across the eastern upstate aligned with a line of vorticity energy and 
across NC mountains where rather steep lapse rates are moving in from the 
west. These storms will be mainly diurnally driven...but some -shra 
will be maintained across the NC mountains in upslope flow through the 
middle morning. Debris clouds will persist overnight...but enough 
clearing should be had to enable morning fog...and patchy/areas of 
dense fog through 13z or so. Not much change is in store with the 
synoptic pattern Wednesday. The western upper trough impinges upon the area and 
the western zones will have a better chance for afternoon precipitation/conv 
than the eastern zones and have maintained high end chances across the 
mountains a good heating day in SW/ly flow with maxes a couple degrees 
above normal will set the stage for another high cape environment 
and pulse severe storms possible. 


&& 


Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/... 
as of 210 PM Tuesday...model guidance remains in fairly good 
agreement with regards to the weather across northeast Georgia and 
the Carolinas for the remainder of the work week. Deep upper level 
trough and an associated surface cold front will slowly migrate 
eastward over the next 24 hours. Surface ridging to the southeast 
will allow for southerly flow...thus setting up a modest warm sector 
across the region on Thursday leading to above normal temperatures. 
Expecting cold front to move into far western portions of the County Warning Area by 
around 12z Thursday morning. Precipitation chances will increase 
near and along this boundary as it moves across the North Carolina 
mountains...and then spreads eastward across the piedmonts. Highest 
probability of precipitation will be across the North Carolina foothills/Piedmont due to 
closer proximity to both upper and surface lows. Expecting any activity 
across the above mentioned regions during the middle to late morning 
hours on Thursday to remain subsevere as low level inversion remains 
in place. Later in the afternoon as surface temperatures increase into the 
80s near and along the i85 corridor...and shear profiles improve 
somewhat along the passing frontal boundary...a severe storm or two 
cannot be ruled out. Conditions will improve across the region late 
on Thursday as diurnal heating is lost...and drier air begins to 
advect in behind the front. 


Slight chance probability of precipitation remain in the forecast across the higher terrain 
during the early morning hours on Friday morning. By daybreak...all 
precipitation should have dissipated and skies will begin to clear 
as high pressure builds. Upper level ridging across the Midwest 
will advect to the east during the day on Friday allowing heights to 
build over northeast Georgia and the Carolinas...leading to pleasant 
weather conditions for the remainder of Friday evening. 
Temperatures on Friday will be on average about ten degrees cooler 
than previous days as northwest flow Ushers in a cooler/drier 
airmass. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
as of 220 PM Tuesday...the shortwave trough moves off the East Coast 
Friday night and drier cooler air filters in from the northwest. 
Driest air varies per model from Friday night through the day 
Saturday. As the upper ridge slowly builds from the west and warm 
front channels showers closer to the NC mountains to start the new 
week...probability of precipitation will increase at least into the slight range. Based on 
the blend of the models...looks like the best time for rain will be 
going into middle week. Seems best organized bands of convection would 
be late Tuesday. Considered going to low chance probability of precipitation at that 
time...but that is a week away and much could change. Convective available potential energy on the 
GFS for Tuesday PM are 1100 to 1400 and winds going up from surface not 
too bad for that time. Temperatures...highs near normal or slightly 
below and lows cooler than normal early in weekend and going above 
into new week. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/... 
at kclt...expect low VFR ceilings this afternoon with periodic pulse 
convection developing within the taf zone by 21z and persisting 
through 01z. Debris clouds overnight will lower...similar to this 
morning...and should help create MVFR ceilings by daybreak. Also 
anticipate MVFR visibility after 07z through 13z. 


Elsewhere...VFR conds...but restrictive convection will become more 
widespread this afternoon...thus all taf sites were given a tempo 
thunderstorms and rain through middle evening. A moist atmos will persist overnight with 
debris clouds lowering and anticipate MVFR ceilings non/mountains and IFR 
ceilings/visibility at kavl developing a few hours before daybreak. 


Outlook... ceiling and visibility restrictions in scattered showers 
and thunderstorms again Thursday aftn/eve. Generally VFR weather 
Friday and Saturday. 


Confidence table... 


18-24z 00-06z 06-12z 12-18z 
kclt high 100% high 100% medium 70% high 80% 
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 90% high 91% 
kavl high 100% high 80% low 41% medium 73% 
khky high 100% high 100% high 91% high 94% 
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 80% high 84% 
kand high 100% high 100% high 91% high 95% 


The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing 
with the scheduled taf issuance flight rule category. Complete 
hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble 
forecasts are available at the following link: (must be lower case) 


Www.Weather.Gov/gsp/aviation_tables 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
NC...none. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...level 
near term...sbk 
short term...cdg 
long term...deo 
aviation...sbk