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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 54 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
753 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013 


Synopsis... 
an upper level trough will move off the Atlantic coast tonight and 
Saturday while surface high pressure continues the cooler than 
normal temperatures this weekend. Expect afternoon showers and 
thunderstorms next week...mainly over the mountains. A rather strong 
upper ridge will bring very warm temperatures for the second half 
of the week. 


&& 


Near term /through Saturday/... 
715 PM update...18z guidance trending a little warmer for lows 
though also suggests lighter winds. Mountain mesonet sites vary on 
dewpoints...with values from around freezing into the upper 30s. 
Think sites will be able to cool easily to them given the calm 
conditions. Lowered overnight lows just a tad. Forecast soundings are 
unfavorable for fog and newest lamp guidance significantly increased 
its visibilities in the little tenn valley. In light of the cooling 
potential as well as these latter points...increased extents of 
patchy frost a bit in the SW mountains but backed off fog forecast 
significantly. Still looking like a very nice day tomorrow with 
light winds and mainly clear skies. A few cirrus move in by 
afternoon as debris from upstream convection presently over the 
Midwest filter down the upper ridge...but this should not impact 
highs. 


Previous discussion...for tonight...an upper trough axis will swing off 
the East Coast leaving behind a deep northwest flow that will bring down 
high pressure and cool temperatures...more than ten degrees below normal. 
The wind should diminish significantly by early Saturday morning. 
This could be enough to allow for patchy frost to develop in some of 
the sheltered mountain valleys...particularly the little Tennessee River 
valley. The area impacted does not look large enough for a frost 
advisory so the mention will remain relegated to the severe weather potential statement. 


Saturday is shaping up to be a bright...sunny...cool...and dry day 
with a light breeze...courtesy of surface high pressure ridging down 
from the Great Lakes. Chamber of Commerce weather for the first part 
of Memorial Day weekend. Open up the windows and enjoy it now 
because it will not last. Temperatures were kept close to a guidance 
blend...which is a comfortable five degrees or so below normal. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday night through Monday/... 
as of 200 PM Friday...northwest flow aloft will continue through Sunday as 
an intense upper low moves through New England. The flow will 
Delaware-amplify on Monday with building heights as the low moves out the 
picture. At the surface...high pressure will ridge south from the 
southern Great Lakes with a weak backdoor front moving through the 
area on Sunday. This front will move north as a warm front on 
Monday. A more dominate high is forecast to develop off the southeast coast 
on Monday. 


A series of impulses embedded in the northwest flow are forecast to move 
across the area Sunday and Monday. The airmass over the region will 
be quite dry in the lower levels initially with dewpoints in the 30s 
and 40s on Sunday. Hence...the lack of significant quantitative precipitation forecast response in 
the model forecasts for sun/Sun night is not surprising. Would expect 
that any precipitation that falls Sunday and Sunday night will be mainly 
virga or perhaps some sprinkles in the mountains. Monday is a 
slightly different story as low level moisture improves with 
dewpoints rising into the 50s as the warm front lifts NE. 
Therefore...would expect some scattered showers developing in the 
mountains in the morning...with scattered showers and perhaps even 
some thunderstorms in the afternoon....mainly over the mountains and 
the NC foothills/Piedmont. 


Temperatures will be below average Sat night and Sunday...with 
moderating temperatures on Monday approaching seasonal levels. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
as of 150 PM Friday...starting at 00z Tuesday all models show some 
middle level moisture between the departing upper trough with axis just 
off the New England coast and the expanding upper ridge with axis 
over East Texas. This linear area of moisture extends from Kentucky to NC 
Monday night then shifts east as ridge builds from SW. Southwesterly 
low level flow will bring warmer air into the region as temperatures 
will be a little above normal Tuesday and Wednesday and then two 
categories above normal for highs Thursday and Friday. Instability 
will support PM showers and storms but favoring differential heating 
of the mountains. Cape values are most unstable on European model (ecmwf) with 1000 
to 2000 values each afternoon. GFS is more reasonable with 800 to 
1200 Tuesday...dropping to less than 1000 for the rest of the week with 
highest values north of clt toward Virginia. Models have center of 500mb 
ridge over western NC Thursday. Seems more stable on Thursday and 
even more stable Friday with drier low to middle level. Upper ridge 
begins to move off the East Coast going into next weekend. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
at kclt and elsewhere...VFR as dry and quiet high pressure builds 
into the region from the Great Lakes. Winds will remain northerly 
overnight becoming light and somewhat variable. No fog concerns at 
taf sites despite the calm conditions...though a few patches of MVFR 
fog could be seen in the valleys of the SW NC mountains however most 
pessimistic guidance /lamp/ is trending toward higher visibilities there. 
Weaker wind profiles will preclude gusts on Sat...with winds 
possibly reflecting Lee troughing by afternoon and Flipping to 
southwest. This is most likely at kclt/kgsp/kgmu. 


Outlook...with dry high pressure dominating the weather across the region 
through the weekend...no significant aviation concerns are expected. A 
return to diurnal thunderstorms is expected for Monday through 
Wednesday with associated restrictions in the vicinity of storms. 


Confidence table... 


00-06z 06-12z 12-18z 18-24z 
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% 


The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing 
with the scheduled taf issuance flight rule category. Complete 
hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble 
forecasts are available at the following link: (must be lower case) 


Www.Weather.Gov/gsp/aviation_tables 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
NC...none. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...deo 
near term...PM/Wimberley 
short term...lg 
long term...deo 
aviation...Wimberley