000 axnt20 knhc 051046 twdat

Tropical weather discussion                                    
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL                         
805 am EDT Tue may 05 2015

Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central  
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of 
South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery...weather observations...radar...and meteorological 

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/monsoon trough...                                     
the monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12n17w to 
08n23w. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 
07n18w to 02n23w to the Equator near 40w. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is from 02n-05n between the prime 
Meridian and 06w. Scattered moderate convection is from the 
Equator to 09n between 15w-21w. 


Gulf of Mexico...                                               
a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery 
over the eastern Gulf with axis extending from over the Florida 
Panhandle S-se over western Cuba to a base in the SW Caribbean 
Sea. West of the axis...northwesterly flow prevails providing 
for overall stable conditions across the western Gulf this 
morning. Otherwise...surface ridging holds across basin 
providing moderate to fresh E-se winds. Looking ahead...the 
upper level trough is forecast to lift northward through 
Thursday with cyclogenesis anticipated in the SW north Atlc 
region Wednesday. The Gulf however is expected to maintain 
moderate to occasional fresh E-se winds as the pressure gradient 
relaxes somewhat through Friday.

Caribbean Sea...                                               
an upper level trough extends from over the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico to a base over the SW Caribbean. While the troughing 
lacks a surface front...subtle surface troughing is reflected at 
the surface with a trough axis extending from western Cuba near 
21n83w to the western Honduras coast near 16n87w. Low-level 
moisture convergence is maximized in the vicinity of the surface 
trough...however strong middle to upper level dynamics are the 
primary ingredient generating scattered showers and tstms N of 
17n between 74w-85w. Much of this activity continues to occur 
across Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters of Cuba...as well as 
across the Florida Straits and Bahamas to the north. Due to the 
persistent nature of the precipitation and slow movement of the 
upper level trough to the north through Thursday...flash 
flooding and a higher potential for mudslides across Cuba are 
expected to remain a threat. Otherwise...the remainder of the 
Caribbean E of 72w is under relatively dry air aloft with 
overall stable conditions expected for the central and eastern 
portions of the basin. The main impact will continue to be fresh 
to strong trades E of 78w due to a strengthened pressure 
gradient. These trades will persist through the end of the week.

currently mostly clear skies are noted on satellite imagery 
across the island this morning. Water vapor imagery indicates 
relatively dry and stable air remains aloft over the region 
promoting the overall fair weather...however cloudiness is 
beginning to increase across the Windward Passage and far 
western portions of the island. These synoptic conditions are 
expected to persist through the remainder of the week as an area 
of low pressure develops to the N-NW across the SW north Atlc 
and moves generally north away from the island.

Atlantic Ocean...                                                
a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery 
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea. To 
the east of the trough axis...S-SW upper level flow continues to 
advect moisture and cloudiness northward over much of the SW 
north Atlc W of 65w this morning. Recent observations...buoys... 
and ship reports indicate very weak surface troughing extends 
from 23n77w to 27n75w with scattered showers and isolated tstms 
occurring over a large area from 20n-31n W of 67w. As the upper 
level trough lifts northward through Thursday...surface 
cyclogenesis is anticipated to occur Wednesday morning in the 
vicinity of the NW Bahamas and move north Thursday and Friday. 
Farther east...a mid-level shortwave trough is noted in the 
vicinity of 37n29w supporting a cold front analyzed from 32n38w 
SW to 25n61w. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either 
side of the front and from 30n-34n between 22w-36w. Otherwise... 
the remainder of the central Atlc is under the influence of a 
weakening surface ridge anchored near 24n47w.

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