000 axnt20 knhc 021730 twdat

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central  
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of 
South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery...weather observations...radar...and meteorological 

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...Special feature...

Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 23.4n 96.5w at 02/1500 UTC 
or about 74 nm ESE of La Pesca Mexico moving WNW at 14 kt. 
Minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind 
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Dolly is expected to produce 
rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts 
of 15 inches across much of tamaulipas and nuevo Leon...as well 
as northern Veracruz and eastern San Luis Potosi Mexico through 
Wednesday evening. This rainfall is expected to cause life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous 
terrain. Presently...scattered moderate to strong convection is 
over the SW Gulf of Mexico and the Mexican coast from 18n-24n  
between 92w-98w. See the latest NHC intermediate public advisory 
under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the full 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat5/wtnt25 knhc 
for more details. 

...Tropical waves...                                     

A tropical wave extends from the Cape Verde Islands near 18n30w 
to 9n31w moving W at 15 kt. SSMI total precipitable water vapor 
imagery shows a large moist area from 3n-16n E of 33w. Scattered 
showers are within 200 nm of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis 
extending from 21n47w to 10n51w moving W at 15-20 kt. SSMI total 
precipitable water vapor imagery shows a moist area from 6n-19n 
between 46w-55w. Isolated moderate convection is from 12n-17n 
between 48w-53w. 

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 
20n64w to 10n65w moving W at 15-20 kt. SSMI total precipitable 
water vapor imagery shows a moist area south of 22n between 66w-
69w. Scattered showers are within 200 nm of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis 
extending from 22n74w to 10n76w moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered 
showers are within 100nm of the wave axis. 

...ITCZ/monsoon trough...                                     

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14n17w to 
10n26w to 5n34w. The ITCZ extends from 5n34w to 10n49w and then 
from 11n53w to the coast of South America near 10n63w. Besides 
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section... 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of the 
monsoon trough off the coast of west Africa from 5n-10n between 
9w-16w. Scattered showers are from 2n-8n between 28w-39w and 
from 9-13n between 53w-60w.


Gulf of Mexico...                                                

Tropical Storm Dolly is located over the SW Gulf of Mexico. See 
the special feature section above. The remainder of the Gulf has 
surface ridging from the Atlantic with axis along 32n. 10-15 kt 
se surface winds covers the Gulf NE of the special feature. 
Scattered thunderstorms are over S Louisiana ... the central 
Gulf...the se Gulf...and S Florida. In the upper levels...a 
small upper level high is centered over the NW Gulf near 28n91w. 
A large upper level low is over Bahamas...centered near 25n75w. 
Upper level cyclonic flow from this low extends across the se 
Gulf and Florida. Expect Dolly to make landfall within the next 
24 hours with significant convection. A tropical wave mentioned 
in the tropical waves section may help produce scattered 
thunderstorms across Cuba and the Florida Straits over the next 
24 hours. Upper level diffluence may help produce scattered 
thunderstorms across the north Gulf states from la to FL. 

Caribbean Sea...                                              

tropical waves are over the eastern and central Caribbean. See 
the tropical wave section above. Scattered moderate convection 
is over Panama and Costa Rica S of 10n. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection are located S of 11n between 74w-82w due to 
monsoon trough activity. The upper low centered over the Bahamas 
has a trough axis from the Bahamas to Honduras and is producing 
cyclonic upper level flow across the western Caribbean. Upper 
level high pressure over the winward islands near 13n60w is 
producing anticyclonic upper level flow across the eastern 
Caribbean. Over the next 24 hours expect additional convection 
across the SW Caribbean and southern portions of Central 
America in the vicinity of the monsoon trough and a tropical 
wave moving W into the area.


Mainly fair weather is occurring across the area between an 
upper low and approaching tropical wave. Scattered daytime 
showers and thunderstorms will be possible today. A tropical 
wave approaching from the east will bring additional chances for 
showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours. 

Atlantic Ocean...                                               

A 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 33n57w. A 1020 
mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near 26n34w. A small 1014mb 
low is west of the Canary Islands near 32n25w. Scattered showers 
are from 29n-33n between 22w-25w. Of note in the upper 
levels...an upper level low is centered over the Bahamas near 
25n75w. Widely scattered moderate convection from 22n-29n 
between 65w-78w. 

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