000 axnt20 knhc 272349 twdat

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2015

Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central  
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of 
South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery...weather observations...radar...and meteorological 

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/monsoon trough...                                      

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10n14w to
06n22w...where the intertropical convergence zone axis begins
and extends to 03n30w to 04n40w to 05n48w to the coast of South
America near 04n51w. Isolated moderate convection is from 05n-
09n between 32w-37w.  


Gulf of Mexico...                                              

A cold front is presently over central Texas. 10-20 kt E-se high
pressure return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest
winds over The Straits of Florida and weakest winds along the
coast of Texas. Mostly fair weather is over the E Gulf. Broken
multilayered clouds are over the W Gulf. In the upper levels...
an upper level ridge is over the W Gulf W of 87w with upper
level moisture. An upper level trough is over the E Gulf with
strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for a cold front to be
along the Texas coast with convection.  

Caribbean Sea...                                               

10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean. A tail end of a
surface trough extends from 21n70w to Hispaniola at 18n72w.
Isolated moderate convection is from 16n-21n between 69w-78w to
include E Cuba and Jamaica. Elsewhere...scattered showers are
over N Colombia...Panama...and Costa Rica. The remainder of the
Caribbean has fair weather. In the upper levels... an upper
level trough is over the Caribbean with axis along 77w. Upper
level moisture is over the E Caribbean E of 77w. The W Caribbean
has strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for showers
and isolated thunderstorms to persist over the E Caribbean
together with the SW Caribbean.


The combination of a surface trough and an upper level trough
over the island supports isolated moderate convection. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible as this convection may persist
for the next 24 hours.

Atlantic Ocean...                                              

A surface trough is over the western Atlantic from 31n65w to
21n70w. Patches of scattered moderate convection are from 21n-
31n between 59w-71w. A 1044 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 43n39w. A ridge axis extends S to near 23n43w with
fair weather. Of note in the upper levels...a large upper level
low is centered over the western Atlantic near 25n74w. Upper
level diffluence E of the low center is enhancing the convection
over the western Atlantic. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
surface trough to continue to move W with convection. The upper
level low will also move SW towards E Cuba enhancing more

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