000 axnt20 knhc 230000 twdat

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2014

Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central  
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of 
South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery...weather observations...radar...and meteorological 

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...Special feature...

...Gale-force winds forecast for the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front currently across central Texas...is expected to 
move off the Texas coast Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday night or 
Wed at 0000 UTC...the cold front is forecast to extend from 
30n91w to 22n97w. A tight pressure gradient between the front 
and a ridge to extend to southern Texas will support gale-force 
NW to N winds and sea heights to 8 ft W of front. Gale winds on 
the Gulf are forecast through Wed evening. Please read the High 
Seas Forecast...miahsfat2/fznt02 knhc...and the offshore 
forecast...miaoffnt4/fznt24 knhc...for more details.  

...The ITCZ/the monsoon trough...                                

The monsoon trough crosses the coast of Africa near 08n13w and 
continues over the E Atlc waters near 07n15w. The ITCZ begins 
near 07n15w and continues along 07n26w 05n35w to 03n45w. 
Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 02n-
13n E of 45w.


Gulf of Mexico... 

Southwesterly flow aloft between a middle-level trough with axis 
along the central U.S. And a broad anticyclone anchored NE of 
the Dominican Republic continues to advect moisture from the 
epac ITCZ to the Gulf S of a line from 30n86w to 25n97w. At the 
surface...S-SW flow in the range of 5-15 kt advects low-level 
moisture from the SW N Atlc and the Caribbean into the southern 
and eastern basin to enhance scattered showers S of the line 
mentioned above. Otherwise...a stationary front extends across 
northern Florida to SW Alabama where it transitions to a warm 
front. Low pressure will continue across the Gulf through Tue 
night...then shifts to the eastern Gulf Wed morning along with a 
strong cold front forecast to extend from Pensacola SW to the 
Bay of Campeche. Gale-force winds will be W of the front through 
Wed evening supported by a strong pressure gradient between the 
front and a ridge that will cover the entire basin Thu morning.

Caribbean Sea...   

A very stable environment consisting of a broad middle-level 
anticyclone anchored NE of the Dominican Republic...a ridge at 
the upper-levels and dry air subsidence from aloft supports fair 
weather across the basin. Patches of shallow moisture embedded 
in the trade wind flow across the NW Caribbean support scattered 
clouds and possible isolated showers. Trades in the range of 20-
25 kt continues across the Central Basin while winds up to 15 kt 
dominate elsewhere. Trades over the central Caribbean are 
forecast to remain on the 20-25 kt the next three days...however 
spreading to the remainder basin Tue to Wed morning as high 
pressure over the W N Atlc drifts to the SW N Atlc...thus 
increasing the pressure gradient in the Caribbean. A cold front 
will exit the Gulf of Mexico Thu morning with tail extending 
from western Cuba SW to Belize.


A very stable environment aloft continues to support fair 
weather across the island. These weather conditions are expected 
to prevail through Thu night as deep layer dry air will 

Atlantic Ocean...   

A stationary front extends across the northern Florida Peninsula 
reaching the Atlc waters N of the area of discussion...however 
supporting scattered showers and tstms over Jacksonville and 
adjacent coastal waters. The current of upper-level moisture  
streaming NE across the Gulf of Mexico reaches the SW N 
Atlc...thus enhancing isolated showers W of a line from 30n67w 
SW to 23n78w. Farther to the se...a surface trough extends from 
23n62w to 20n67w with no deep convection associated with it. 
Over the Central Basin...a narrow and elongated trough aloft 
with base near 27n40w supports a dissipating cold front N of the 
area of discussion with tail extending from 30n39w SW to 27n42w. 
Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are N of 26n 
between 34w-45w. Surface ridging dominates W and E of the 
dissipating front. A new cold front will enter the SW basin by 
Thu morning.

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