axnt20 knhc 191745
Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT sun may 19 2013
Tropical weather discussion for North America...
Central America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...
northern sections of South America...and Atlantic
Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32n.
The following information is based on satellite
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave is along the coast of Guyana from 12n58w to
7n59w to 4n58w. Scattered showers are mostly E of the wave axis
from 8n-12n between 51w-58w.
...The ITCZ/the monsoon trough...
The monsoon extends from coastal Sierra Leone near 7n12w to
5n14w. The ITCZ continues from 5n14w to 3n17w to 4n30w to 0n38w
to the coast of Brazil at 2s45w. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 1n-5n between 3w-17w. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 2n-7n between 19w-23w. Isolated
moderate convection is from 1n-6n between 28w-40w...and from 2n-
6n between 40w-50w.
The Gulf of Mexico...
Surface ridging continues over the Gulf of Mexico with axis N of
30n producing 10-15 kt se surface flow over the Gulf. Radar
imagery shows the Gulf to be void of any precipitation. In the
upper levels...an upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis
along 89w. A plume of upper level moisture with broken high
clouds are over the central Gulf from the Florida Panhandle to
Tampico Mexico. Strong subsidence is over Texas...and over S
Florida. Expect over the next 24 hours for continued surface
ridging with a band of showers to advect from W Cuba to the
central Gulf. Also expect more showers to form over N Florida.
The Caribbean Sea...
10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Isolated moderate
convection is over N Colombia...Panama...and Costa Rica S of 11n
between 73w-86w mostly due to the monsoon trough. Scattered
showers are over the Yucatan Channel...and W Cuba. More showers
are over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Similar showers are over
the Leeward Islands near Guadeloupe. In the upper levels... an
upper level trough is over the Caribbean Sea with axis along
72w. An embedded upper level low is over the S Bahamas near
23n74w. Upper level diffluence se of this center is supporting
an area of scattered showers over the the S Bahamas...Hispaniola
...And Puerto Rico. Expect over the next 24 hours for more
showers to advect over the Windward Islands due to an
approaching tropical wave. Also expect more showers over the NW
Satellite imagery shows scattered showers over Hispaniola with
the stongest showers over the Dominican Republic E of 71w.
Surface tradewind convergence together with upper level
diffluence from the low over the S Bahamas will maintain showers
over Hispaniola for the next 24 hours.
The Atlantic Ocean...
A cold front has dipped over the W Atlantic from 32n59w to
29n66w to 32n73w. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the
front. The remnants of a previous front is further se in the
form of a trough from 31n56w to 24n63w. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm E of the trough. A 1034 mb high is centered near
the Azores at 40n29w producing fair weather and easterly surface
flow over the E Atlantic W of the Canary Islands. In the upper
levels of note...a small upper level low is centered near 29n59w
supporting showers. Another large upper level low is centered
near 31n35w. A 90 kt tropical jet extends from 15n45w to to the
Canary Islands with a plume of broken high clouds. Expect over
the next 24 hours for more scattered showers to be over the
Bahamas and Florida coast. Also expect the cold front to move
move E and merge with the surface trough with showers.
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